517
FXUS63 KIWX 280641
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
241 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms today.
  Drying out by sunset.

- Dry, pleasant weather for Labor Day weekend.

- Dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions expected for
  Lake Michigan beaches today through Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A closed upper-level low is dropping through northeast Ontario and
into Quebec this morning with a cold front at the surface extending
into southwest Wisconsin. Preceding the cold front is a weak impulse
streaking through Illinois, characterized by a pocket of
35-knot 850-mb wind. Showers are ongoing with each of these
features this morning and stratus continues to blossom across
western Indiana. Look for showers to increase in coverage
through the morning from northwest to southeast. The
aformentioned low-level jet appears to be the primary driver,
aided by the approaching cold front and its upper- level wind
field which will provide enhanced lift. Increasing confidence in
isolated thunderstorms looking more probable along the cold
front this afternoon, primarily toward the Michigan state line.
Forecast soundings show mid- level lapse rates near 8C/km and
MUCAPE right near 500 j/kg. Furthermore, a thunderstorm was
ongoing in Traverse City, MI dark and early this 2AM hour. The
tallest storms could produce pea size hail thanks to the low
freezing levels just shy of 10,000 ft. Drying out by sunset from
northwest to southeast as well. Rain amounts will generally be
on either side of 0.10".

Cool northwest flow behind this front limits high temperatures
Friday to only the low-70s at best. High pressure provides beautiful
weekend weather throughout the Great Lakes with a gradual rise in
temperatures as high pressure shifts east Sunday and Monday when
highs may reach 80 degrees. As stated here this afternoon, look for
increasing rain chances by midweek as the next trough arrives.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR conditions will generally prevail, although some temporary
higher end MVFR cigs will be possible in showers between 10Z and
17Z. An upstream weather disturbance currently over northern
Illinois will move into the area later tonight, with showers
first impacting SBN and then FWA closer to morning. Some
thunder is also possible, but given lack of confidence, have
left out mention in TAFs for now. This activity should clear the
terminals Thursday afternoon, after which clouds will again
lift and thin out with the arrival of drier air behind the cold
front.

Light southwest winds tonight will shift westerly and
pick up to around 10kts on Thursday before becoming north and
diminishing again tomorrow night.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 9 AM CDT this morning through
     Friday morning for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM EDT this morning through
     Friday morning for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Friday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Cobb