410
FXUS63 KIWX 041814
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
214 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stray shower or storm possible (10-20%) late this afternoon
  into early this evening, mainly across far northeast Indiana,
  far northwest Ohio and south-central Michigan.

- Hot and humid through Sunday.

- Scattered showers and storms arrive Sunday afternoon into
  Sunday evening.

- Less humid and primarily dry Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Isolated showers and storms remain possible (20%) this afternoon
into early this evening, mainly over our far northeast zones
(Hillsdale MI/Wauseon OH) near an eastward progressing outflow
boundary. Mainly dry and hot elsewhere with upper ridging
building in, though cannot rule out a stray late day shower
(10%) near any outflow/lake breeze boundaries.

For Saturday, the upper ridge will be overhead promoting dry and hot
conditions with low level southwest winds picking up a bit on the
backside of sfc high pressure. The ridge does break down in response
to an approaching shortwave and associated cold front Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Primarily dry and warm conditions should
prevail, though there remains a low chance for showers to sneak into
western areas Sunday morning along a potential pre-frontal feature.

The cold front sags southeast through the area Sunday afternoon-
evening with scattered showers and storms. The Kinematic profiles
will be unimpressive given the dampening and disorganized nature to
the mid level pv tracking east through the Great Lakes. Moisture
pools along the front however with PWATs nearing 2" for at least
some scattered convection during the afternoon and evening in this
hot and muggy air mass. Locally heavy rainfall rates and wet
microbursts capable of 40 mph plus gusts appear be the primary
threats.

The bulk of available model guidance builds in high pressure across
the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday with the active frontal boundary
and deeper moisture settling just south of the forecast area. The
result would be lower humidity levels and dry conditions for most,
though still retained NBM`s low chance PoPs mainly along and
southeast of the US 24 corridor given limited ensemble support (20-
30%) that stall the front here on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Marginal instability and a weak shortwave leftover from last
night`s convection could spark a stray shower or storm in the
vicinity of KSBN late this afternoon. However, conditions still
appear too dry/stable to warrant a mention in the TAF. Chances
even lower at KFWA. Otherwise VFR persists through the period
with high clouds at times. SW winds increase slightly on
Saturday but will likely remain below 20 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ020.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for MIZ177-
     277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...AGD