432
FXUS63 KIWX 011806
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
206 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered showers this afternoon, mainly in northwest
  Ohio.

* Cooler tonight with lows in the 40s.

* Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Wednesday through this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Cold front near the I-69 corridor (as of 18z) will continue to
progress east through the remainder of the forecast area this
afternoon. There appears to be enough lingering boundary layer
moisture and height falls on the southern fringe of a shortwave
trough to generate isolated to scattered showers along the cold
front locally, best chances into nw OH given the more favorable
diurnal timing. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder here mid-late
afternoon if 200-400 j/kg of CAPE is realized.

Good post-frontal cooling (850mb temps dropping 8C or so) will allow
for a few gusts to exceed 20 knots behind the cold front from west
to east into the early evening. High pressure does fold in overnight
into Wednesday with clear skies and light winds. Lows should drop
into the 40s for most locations tonight, coolest west where optimal
radiational cooling settles in earliest. A nice recovery otherwise
into the upper 60s and low 70s by Wednesday afternoon given ample
sunshine and late beginnings of return flow. Thursday another nice
day with ongoing warm advection allowing highs to reach well into
the 70s.

The next broad buckle in quasi-zonal flow near the US/Canada border
will send the next weaker front southeast through the area later
Thursday into Friday morning. The flatter nature to the wave, dry
antecedent continues, and poor pre-frontal moisture return suggest a
dry frontal passage and lacking cold advection in its wake.
Seasonable temps and plenty of sun with high pressure in control
then into Saturday.

Signal does continue in model land for a more formidable upper
level trough to dig through the Great Lakes region around Sunday or
Sunday night. This brings the next chance for showers, followed by
cooler/breezy conditions. Shower chances remain on the low side
however as moisture quality will once again be a limiting factor.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

2 distinct boundaries are making their way through the TAF
sites. The first, a pre frontal trough, has just cleared KFWA
with some light showers attempting to develop, but struggling to
gain much strength. Winds have shifted to NW or N behind this
trough. The main cold front was passing through KSBN with
clearing following within a few hours of its passage. In between
the 2, pockets of MVFR cigs were in place and have tried to
resolve these as best as possible in the 18Z issuance despite
their limited duration. Thereafter, much drier air arrives, as
depicted nicely on satellite with clearing across much of N IL
into Wisconsin. Some gustiness in the winds has been noted
between the boundaries as well as right behind the cold front.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Fisher