922
FXUS63 KIWX 041715
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
115 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Most of today followed by an increasing chance of rain from
  south to north.

- A period of heavy rain is expected Friday night through
  Saturday which will worsen any ongoing flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Impressive shortwave disturbance over the swrn US in tandem with nrn
stream disturbance driving through Hudson Bay will yield a wet short
term as broad, strong warm advection kicks in by evening. However
shallow and dry post frontal airmass in place will take some time in
saturating and will truncate prior pops to late aftn period.

Otherwise sfc frontal zone will attempt to mix back north into cntrl
IN overnight with consensus track of weak sfc wave from approx HUF-
MZZ-FDY with heaviest overnight rainfall along or just left of this
track. Considerable spread though in placement of stripe of heaviest
rain and will punt any short term decision on flood watch expansion.
Nonetheless much greater nrn stream suppression and slower kickout
of deep layer swrn upper trough looks to steer second round of heavy
rainfall well south of the area Sat night. Will hedge pops
considerably lower Sat-Sat night to account for otherwise good
00Z based model agreement.

Thereafter robust upper troughing carves out from the lakes through
ern Canada which will yield unseasonably cool and at times showery
wx as series of disturbances drop through amplified ern NOAM
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are gradually lifting north
through Indiana. The time of arrival for rain has stayed
consistent with this TAF issuance. The best chance for thunder
is at KFWA where instability parameters are more favorable. High
confidence in IFR and LIFR ceilings overnight as well with this
rain shield. Ceilings gradually improve late in the TAF period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ009-017-018-020-
     022>027-032>034.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
     016-024-025.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Brown