601
FXUS63 KIWX 281708
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1208 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A wind advisory is in effect for Michigan, Indiana, and
  Northwest Ohio from 10 AM EST today through late this
  afternoon and early this evening.

- Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph will gust to 45 to 55 mph
  today, with the highest gusts expected south of US 6

- High temperatures will rise into the 50s and low 60s today,
  then plummet into the 20s overnight. There is a slight chance
  for rain and or snow showers tonight, mainly north and west of
  US 24.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Intense clipper disturbance along the MB/MN border will deepen
considerably as it heads toward the ern UP by late day. Downstream
warm sector, especially from ern IL newd into nrn OH, will see
appreciable diurnal heating timed with rapid LLJ intensification.
Thus insolation driven sfc based mixed layer expected to deepen
rapidly in kind and tap into 50kt flow just off the deck and support
several hours of strong gradient winds including gusts to 55 mph at
times centered around solar noon. Upstream cloud cover, if it holds,
would temper higher gust potential but it could come close to a high
wind warning event for a time particularly if 17-19Z window
coincides with full sun.

Secondary, lessor wind max follows this evening as sharp cold front
moves through and temps crash 30+ degrees. Enough lake based
moistening within largely 330-350 flow trajectory to support some
lake shsn response late tonight/Sat morning yet constrained with dry
slot aloft pivoting through swrn flank of exiting, intense upper low.
Daytime temps Sat will struggle in an otherwise cold/brisk day.

Flow backs later Sun ahead of broad, digging upper trough that
develops through the srn Rockies Late Mon into Tue before ejecting
out into the srn plains late Tue. This sys then deepens explosively
in most med range model guidance with mild/wet and windy wx late Tue
giving way to cold/wet and windy wx late Wed. Certainly some heavy
rain potential in the warm sector Tue night and heavy snow potential
northwest late Wed with details to be ironed out in time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected through this TAF period outside
of some MVFR cigs possible for KSBN after 00z Sat with a post
frontal lake enhanced showers that will be possible through the
end of the TAF period for that site. Otherwise, the main
operations issue will be southerly gusty winds of 30 to 35 kts
ahead of a cold front that will move southeastward through the
area. It will be possible a few of the gusts do get up to around
45 kts, we currently had a gust to 40 kts at KSBN around 17z
this afternoon. Winds will begin to trend somewhat lower through
the TAF period but still expect gusts up to 25 kts towards the
end of the period for both sites.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     INZ005>009-103-104-203-204.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     INZ012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ001-002-004-
     005.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ015-016-024-
     025.
MI...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ078>081-177-
     277.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Andersen