693
FXUS63 KIWX 072310
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
610 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Lows tonight will be in the 20s.

-A wintry mix of precipitation is expected Saturday morning
 into Saturday evening. Areas from US 30 northward have the best
 chance of seeing hazardous driving conditions as a combination
 of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain occurs. Minor travel
 impacts are expected.

-There are several chances for some accumulating snow through
 next week, particularly Tuesday and then again on Wednesday
 night into Thursday. High temperatures will be in the 20s and
 low to mid 30s. Lows will be in the teens and 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Quiet weather through late tonight into very early Saturday
morning before the next trough moves into the area. A warm
front associated with the system will hover over the southern
parts of our CWA as it slides eastward. This WAA aloft with the
isentropic upglide will allow for rain aloft to freeze at the
surface especially at the onset of precipitation. However, the
forecast is rather tricky as the exact placement and how far
north the warming aloft travels dictates what type of
precipitation will occur at the surface, and there seems to be
no consensus with the guidance which increases the uncertainty.
On this shift have opted to add freezing drizzle to the mix and
have held off on headlines with there still being some time
before the onset and hoping that tonights guidance will come
into more agreement. Bottom line is that there will be wintry
weather across the CWA and at this time it appears the better
chances for the mixed variety will still be mainly north of US
30. The better chance of freezing rain looks to be the central
eastern parts of the CWA. But keep in mind even a little bit of
freezing rain could cause travel issues. A trace up to around
0.15 inches of ice accumulation will be possible with this
event. Snowfall totals for the northern half of the CWA will top
out around a half an inch. Of course, these totals may change
depending on the exact evolution/track of this system. Even so,
with any of the wintry accumulations, if you don`t have to
travel on Saturday it is best to plan on staying off of the
roadways which may become fairly slick with the mixed
precipitation at the surface. Highs on Saturday will get into
the low to mid 30s.

By Saturday evening we will see the system continue to push
eastward and lows will drop into the low to mid 20s. So even
areas that manage to get just some rainfall earlier in the day
may see those surfaces freeze back up and create continued
hazards on any untreated surfaces. There will be also a little
bit of residual lake effect snow showers for areas adjacent to
Lake Michigan but with fairly low delta T`s the lake machine
will not be very efficient.

For Sunday through Monday, with slight increases in synoptic
heights and a more zonal flow aloft we will see a break in
precipitation chances and highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
A weak shortwave ripples through on Tuesday bringing some light
snow showers across the area with a short break on Wednesday
before another deeper trough across the central CONUS with a low
circulation developing over the four-corners region moves
northeastward into our area on Thursday. Highs on Tuesday and
Wednesday will remain in the upper 20s to low 30s and Thursday
highs only will get into the mid to upper 20s. This colder
system looks to have the best chance for measurable snowfall
for our area and will need to continue to monitor over the next
several days to nail down the finer details.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

VFR conditions prevail through this evening and overnight with
light and variable winds. An area of low pressure will lift
northeast towards the forecast area tomorrow afternoon, bringing
a mix of precipiation types, including snow, freezing rain, and
rain. Precipitation will begin around 18Z Saturday as winds
increase and ceilings quickly drop to MVFR/IFR. Forecast
soundings support a mix of light snow and freezing rain mainly
along and north of US 24, while rain is favored south of US 24.
A glaze to a few hundreths of an inch of ice are possible late
Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Johnson