370
FXUS63 KIWX 190945
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
545 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms primarily south of US 24 this
  morning through early afternoon. Not as warm.

- There is a 20% to 40% chance of showers Sunday, with
  increasing chances Sunday night.

- Temperatures on either side of 70 degrees will be common next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The early-morning severe weather risk as ended. A few pulse
thunderstorms occurred near midnight and generally failed to
gain much updraft strength/depth with 50dBz cores struggling to
reach 20k ft. The cold front is just now clearing Chicagoland,
approaching northwest Indiana. Locations in the west ought to
see declining temperatures during the remainder of these early-
morning hours. To the east, a balmy morning will give way
temperatures falling into the 50s later on.

This front stalls north of the Ohio River today and is the
focus for showers and maybe a rumble of thunder south of US 24
later this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over
central IL, spilling into west-central IN. This activity is
expected to move through areas south of US 24 around daybreak,
then drying out by the late afternoon. The risk for localized
flooding has diminished, with the primary focus of heavy rain
being south and west of our forecast area.

Low pressure lifts north through the Plains Sunday and local POPs
were cut heavily. High pressure lingers over Michigan resulting in
continued subsidence and dry air. With the low far enough west,
moisture transport locally will be lack luster. In coordination with
neighbors, I held onto to 30-40% chance of showers in the far
southwest, decreasing to 30% chance in the afternoon primarily west
of US 31. Overcoming the lingering high pressure will be key. The
cold front from this Plains low moves through late Sunday night
through Monday offering the best chance for widespread showers and
storms.

Zonal flow prevails through the remainder of the week resulting in
normal to above-normal temperatures. There are low chances for
showers and thunderstorms both mid- and late-week as weak shortwaves
race through said zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A cold front is currently working its way through the area with
showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it. The cold front is
just now passing through South Bend and should be reaching Fort
Wayne by the start of the 12Z TAF period. This was a tricky
forecast for KFWA in the short term trying to decide how long it
will take for showers and thunderstorms to move through. Decided
to do a TEMPO group for -TSRA at KFWA from 12Z to 14Z with the
front moving through. A few showers could linger late this
morning at KFWA and locations southeast. MVFR ceilings will
persist this morning at both terminals. Westerly winds ahead of
the front will shift today to become more northwest by the
afternoon. Expect light winds and VFR ceilings area-wide by
sunset this evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson