Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
161
FGUS73 KIND 131917
ESFIND
ILC023-033-047-059-101-185-193-INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-031-
035-045-055-057-059-063-065-067-071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-
107-109-119-121-133-135-139-145-153-157-159-165-167-171-271200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Indianapolis IN
315 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number Three for Central
and much of Southern Indiana...
The spring flood potential outlook covering now through May for the
White, Wabash, and East Fork White Rivers and their tributaries is
near normal to slightly above normal. The risk is higher than last
year. A slightly above normal risk means that minor flooding is
expected on area rivers with moderate flooding possible, particularly
on the lower White, portions of the East Fork White, and the lower
Wabash. This is an overall river flood risk through May, but remember
that locally heavy rainfall from any particular system could produce
a locally enhanced short term flood risk.
Over the last three months, precipitation across most of central and
northern Indiana has been 70 to 90 percent of normal, with 90 to 100
percent of normal near Lake Michigan. Across southern Indiana
precipitation amounts have run generally 100 to 130 percent of
normal. Drought conditions (D1) continue on the Drought Monitor
surrounded by Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions across much of northern
and central Indiana. Precipitation over the last two weeks has been
focused over northern Indiana near the lakeshore and the Michigan
border, with 1.5 to 3.0 inch totals there. Much of central Indiana
has seen only around half an inch during that time, with 0.75 to 1.25
inches along the Ohio River.
Soil moisture across Indiana is below normal for the northern half of
the state and near to just above normal along the Ohio River. There
is no snow or ice across the area. Seven day average streamflow is
below to well below normal across the Wabash and White basins, near
normal across much of southern and eastern Indiana, with above normal
streamflow in Lake and Porter counties near the lakeshore.
The forecast for the next seven days shows precipitation totals of
around an inch over northwestern Indiana increasing to around 2.5
inches over southeastern Indiana. Much of this is associated with an
impactful storm system moving through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
Friday and Saturday. The 8 to 14 day outlook indicates a signal
favoring above normal temperatuers and above normal precipitation
across the state. The ten day river ensemble forecasts show a greater
than 30 percent chance of minor flooding developing on lower parts of
the East Fork White and far lower White. Going forward, the 90 day
seasonal outlook for March through May shows likely above normal
precipitation with no clear signal for temperatures.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/18/2025 - 06/16/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 44 29 27 18 5 <5
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 77 64 35 25 <5 <5
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 9.0 11.0 15.0 : 20 18 12 10 <5 <5
:East Fork White River
Columbus 9.0 14.0 16.0 : 54 33 8 <5 <5 <5
Rivervale 20.0 30.0 35.0 : 80 68 17 10 <5 <5
Bedford 20.0 27.0 32.0 : 71 52 18 13 <5 <5
Seymour 12.0 17.0 19.0 : 91 91 41 26 <5 <5
Shoals 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 48 36 22 16 <5 <5
Williams 8.0 14.0 20.0 : 74 61 20 17 <5 <5
:Eel River
Bowling Green 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 70 60 30 22 <5 6
:Flatrock River
Columbus 11.0 15.0 19.0 : 58 38 9 <5 <5 <5
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 17.0 27.0 32.0 : 28 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 15.0 17.0 21.0 : 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 8.0 12.0 15.0 : 27 44 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Wabash River
Covington 16.0 24.0 29.0 : 81 92 13 18 <5 <5
Hutsonville Legac 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 95 >95 16 21 <5 <5
Lafayette 11.0 18.0 26.0 : 82 93 21 28 <5 <5
Mount Carmel 19.0 25.0 32.0 : 79 81 41 43 <5 <5
Montezuma 14.0 24.0 31.0 : 93 >95 25 24 <5 <5
Riverton 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 94 >95 26 30 <5 <5
Terre Haute 16.5 24.5 30.0 : 89 93 26 17 <5 <5
Vincennes 16.0 22.0 28.0 : 65 78 23 25 <5 <5
:White River
Anderson 10.0 15.0 19.0 : 41 32 8 6 <5 <5
Eagle Valley Powe 603.0 607.0 610.0 : 62 46 8 10 <5 <5
Centerton 12.0 16.0 19.0 : 61 44 9 10 <5 <5
Elliston 18.0 25.0 29.0 : 92 86 30 23 <5 <5
Edwardsport 15.0 22.0 25.0 : 95 88 28 22 <5 <5
Hazleton 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 91 87 36 31 6 6
Indianapolis 16.0 20.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Muncie 9.0 12.0 15.0 : 24 17 5 <5 <5 <5
Noblesville 14.0 19.0 22.0 : 48 39 8 7 <5 <5
Nora 11.0 16.0 19.0 : 50 38 10 8 <5 <5
Newberry 13.0 19.0 24.0 : 82 77 32 33 <5 <5
Petersburg 16.0 23.5 26.0 : 92 86 39 27 12 6
Ravenswood 6.0 10.0 12.0 : 59 47 10 8 <5 <5
Spencer 14.0 20.0 24.0 : 76 79 23 18 <5 <5
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 10.0 15.0 19.5 : 50 59 17 23 8 9
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/18/2025 - 06/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 7.3 8.9 9.9 12.3 15.2 17.5 18.0
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 6.9 8.9 11.3 13.1 14.5 15.1 15.2
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 3.0 3.2 4.1 4.6 7.9 11.4 12.9
:East Fork White River
Columbus 2.5 3.1 6.2 9.5 11.7 13.4 14.8
Rivervale 14.9 17.1 21.3 24.7 28.1 31.5 34.0
Bedford 13.6 15.0 19.5 22.3 25.4 28.7 31.6
Seymour 9.9 12.2 15.0 16.5 17.9 18.7 18.8
Shoals 7.7 8.6 14.1 19.6 24.3 27.4 29.8
Williams 4.8 5.5 7.9 10.0 12.8 16.3 17.9
:Eel River
Bowling Green 10.7 11.6 14.3 17.8 20.5 21.5 22.1
:Flatrock River
Columbus 6.8 7.4 9.2 11.9 14.2 15.0 15.4
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 6.0 7.8 10.9 14.2 17.4 22.4 25.4
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 5.9 7.2 9.8 12.2 14.8 16.1 16.6
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 4.4 5.0 5.6 6.7 8.1 9.5 11.2
:Wabash River
Covington 13.9 14.6 17.1 19.1 22.8 24.3 25.2
Hutsonville Legac 16.0 16.7 18.1 20.8 23.0 24.7 25.4
Lafayette 9.0 10.0 12.0 14.2 17.2 20.0 21.3
Mount Carmel 14.9 16.7 19.8 23.5 27.6 29.7 30.8
Montezuma 13.2 14.9 17.9 21.2 24.0 26.0 27.7
Riverton 14.9 15.7 16.9 19.6 22.1 24.2 25.1
Terre Haute 15.0 16.4 18.4 21.7 24.6 26.0 26.8
Vincennes 12.2 13.3 14.6 18.3 21.6 24.4 25.2
:White River
Anderson 6.1 7.0 8.3 9.4 11.1 14.2 16.6
Eagle Valley Powe 598.3 599.9 601.5 604.3 605.8 606.8 607.4
Centerton 5.5 7.7 9.9 13.6 15.1 15.9 16.3
Elliston 17.6 18.3 21.4 23.6 25.4 26.5 27.0
Edwardsport 15.0 15.5 18.4 20.3 22.2 24.2 24.6
Hazleton 14.2 16.3 20.5 22.6 25.1 27.1 28.3
Indianapolis 7.1 8.0 9.3 10.7 12.4 14.6 15.8
Muncie 5.7 6.5 7.1 7.7 8.9 10.9 12.0
Noblesville 8.0 9.4 11.0 13.8 16.1 18.4 19.9
Nora 6.0 7.3 9.0 11.0 13.2 15.8 18.0
Newberry 10.2 10.8 14.7 17.2 19.7 22.1 22.5
Petersburg 14.4 16.7 20.6 22.6 24.8 26.2 26.9
Ravenswood 2.6 3.8 5.1 6.5 7.9 9.8 11.5
Spencer 8.5 10.8 14.1 17.7 19.8 21.5 21.9
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 6.6 7.1 8.2 10.0 12.3 17.4 24.2
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/18/2025 - 06/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4
:East Fork White River
Rivervale 6.9 6.4 5.8 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.4
Bedford 4.9 4.3 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.4
Seymour 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5
Shoals 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.1
Williams 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.1
:Eel River
Bowling Green 4.2 4.0 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.4
:Flatrock River
Columbus 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9
:Wabash River
Covington 6.6 6.2 5.7 5.2 4.9 4.5 4.1
Hutsonville Legac 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.1
Lafayette 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.2
Mount Carmel 7.0 6.1 5.0 4.3 3.6 3.3 3.1
Montezuma 5.3 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.3
Riverton 5.2 4.7 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.4
Terre Haute 6.0 5.4 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.4
Vincennes 4.9 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.5
:White River
Anderson 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.9
Eagle Valley Powe 594.9 594.7 594.6 594.4 594.3 594.2 594.2
Centerton 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4
Elliston 8.3 7.8 6.9 6.0 5.6 4.8 3.6
Edwardsport 6.7 5.9 4.9 4.3 4.1 3.7 3.0
Hazleton 6.9 6.0 5.2 4.1 3.4 2.8 2.4
Indianapolis 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Muncie 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
Noblesville 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6
Nora 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7
Newberry 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4
Petersburg 6.1 5.7 4.7 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.5
Ravenswood 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Spencer 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.8
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s National Water Prediction Service
(NWPS).
Visit our web site weather.gov/ind for more weather and water
information. For a graphical version of this product visit
weather.gov/ind/SpringHydrologicOutlook.
This is the final spring outlook for 2025.
$$
CP