Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Indianapolis IN
1155 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number Two for Central
and much of Southern Indiana...
The spring flood potential outlook covering the period March through
May for the White, Wabash, and East Fork White Rivers and their
tributaries is near normal to slightly above normal.
The risk is higher than last year. A slightly above normal risk means
that minor flooding is expected on area rivers with moderate flooding
possible, particularly on the lower White, portions of the East Fork
White, and the lower Wabash. This is an overall river flood risk
through May, but remember that locally heavy rainfall from any
particular system could produce a locally enhanced short term flood
risk.
Over the last three months, precipitation across all but southern
Indiana has been 50 to 90 percent of normal. Across southern Indiana
precipitation amounts have run generally 110 to 150 percent of
normal. Abnormally dry conditions remain across much of northern
and central Indiana on the drought monitor. Precipitation over the
last two weeks has been focused on the Ohio River, with three to four
inches over southern Indiana, one to two inches over southern
Indiana, and less than an inch across the northern half of the state.
Soil moisture across Indiana is below normal for the northern half of
the state, near normal for southern Indiana, and above normal along
the Ohio River. There is no appreciable snow cover or river ice
across the area. Seven day average streamflow is below to well below
normal across the northern half of the state as well as in the Wabash
valley, near normal across much of southern and eastern Indiana, with
above normal streamflow in parts of far southern Indiana.
The forecast for the next seven days shows precipitation totals of
around 0.75 to 1.25 inches over the state, with potential for an
impactful storm system to move through the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys Tuesday to Wednesday of next week. The 8 to 14 day outlook
indicates mostly normal temperatures with a lean toward warmer than
normal in western Indiana, and a lean toward wetter than normal
across the state. The ten day river ensemble forecasts show less than
30 percent of any minor flooding developing in the hydrologic service
area, but even the 50 percent indicates potential for reaching action
stages in the Wabash, lower White and East Fork White. Going forward,
the 90 day seasonal outlook for March through May shows likely above
normal precipitation with no clear signal for temperatures.
With no more extended streaks of average temperatures below 20
degrees in the forecast or outlooks, the risk for river ice jam
flooding has ended for central and southern Indiana for the season.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/05/2025 - 06/03/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 42 28 25 18 <5 <5
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 68 72 28 25 <5 <5
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 9.0 11.0 15.0 : 24 18 17 9 <5 <5
:East Fork White River
Columbus 9.0 14.0 16.0 : 49 35 6 <5 <5 <5
Rivervale 20.0 30.0 35.0 : 79 76 10 15 <5 <5
Bedford 20.0 27.0 32.0 : 67 62 20 18 <5 <5
Seymour 12.0 17.0 19.0 : 90 93 44 26 <5 <5
Shoals 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 45 38 23 18 <5 5
Williams 8.0 14.0 20.0 : 75 66 24 19 <5 <5
:Eel River
Bowling Green 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 66 62 30 23 <5 <5
:Flatrock River
Columbus 11.0 15.0 19.0 : 61 44 9 <5 <5 <5
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 17.0 27.0 32.0 : 33 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 15.0 17.0 21.0 : 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 8.0 12.0 15.0 : 26 43 <5 6 <5 <5
:Wabash River
Covington 16.0 24.0 29.0 : 81 90 9 17 <5 <5
Hutsonville Legac 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 89 >95 10 19 <5 <5
Lafayette 11.0 18.0 26.0 : 79 91 18 27 <5 <5
Mount Carmel 19.0 25.0 32.0 : 80 85 44 45 <5 <5
Montezuma 14.0 24.0 31.0 : 90 >95 18 21 <5 <5
Riverton 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 88 >95 18 29 <5 <5
Terre Haute 16.5 24.5 30.0 : 85 91 18 14 <5 <5
Vincennes 16.0 22.0 28.0 : 67 77 16 25 <5 <5
:White River
Anderson 10.0 15.0 19.0 : 37 25 <5 <5 <5 <5
Eagle Valley Powe 603.0 607.0 610.0 : 54 51 10 9 <5 <5
Centerton 12.0 16.0 19.0 : 52 49 10 10 <5 <5
Elliston 18.0 25.0 29.0 : 91 86 32 23 <5 <5
Edwardsport 15.0 22.0 25.0 : 92 90 32 22 <5 <5
Hazleton 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 93 92 40 32 10 6
Indianapolis 16.0 20.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Muncie 9.0 12.0 15.0 : 10 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
Noblesville 14.0 19.0 22.0 : 42 40 <5 <5 <5 <5
Nora 11.0 16.0 19.0 : 41 43 7 6 <5 <5
Newberry 13.0 19.0 24.0 : 80 78 36 34 <5 <5
Petersburg 16.0 23.5 26.0 : 94 91 43 29 17 6
Ravenswood 6.0 10.0 12.0 : 50 51 7 6 <5 <5
Spencer 14.0 20.0 24.0 : 71 80 21 20 <5 <5
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 10.0 15.0 19.5 : 52 61 10 16 5 7
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/05/2025 - 06/03/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 7.6 8.4 10.0 12.0 15.0 17.5 18.0
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 7.0 8.7 10.4 12.6 14.2 15.1 15.1
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 3.2 3.4 4.0 4.9 8.7 12.9 14.2
:East Fork White River
Columbus 2.4 3.1 5.7 8.9 11.1 13.1 14.2
Rivervale 15.3 17.6 20.9 24.1 28.1 30.1 33.2
Bedford 13.6 15.6 19.1 21.9 25.9 29.2 30.5
Seymour 10.8 12.0 14.7 16.8 17.7 18.4 18.9
Shoals 8.3 10.1 15.1 18.8 24.5 27.9 28.8
Williams 5.2 6.2 8.0 10.3 13.8 16.5 17.5
:Eel River
Bowling Green 10.3 11.5 13.6 17.7 20.6 21.8 22.1
:Flatrock River
Columbus 6.9 7.4 9.8 11.9 13.7 14.8 15.5
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 5.4 6.0 10.4 13.3 18.7 20.9 23.1
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 6.6 7.5 9.0 11.4 14.0 15.7 16.3
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 4.0 4.5 5.4 6.6 8.1 9.4 10.4
:Wabash River
Covington 11.6 14.2 17.3 19.2 21.5 23.7 24.8
Hutsonville Legac 14.2 15.8 18.5 20.4 22.0 23.9 25.0
Lafayette 7.7 9.4 11.6 14.1 16.9 19.2 20.5
Mount Carmel 14.6 17.1 20.1 24.4 27.2 30.1 30.8
Montezuma 11.0 13.9 18.5 20.9 23.3 24.8 26.7
Riverton 12.5 14.7 17.2 19.1 20.9 23.1 24.5
Terre Haute 13.1 15.1 19.0 21.1 23.6 25.5 26.3
Vincennes 10.8 12.9 15.3 17.6 20.3 23.2 25.2
:White River
Anderson 6.5 7.0 8.3 9.4 10.6 11.5 13.1
Eagle Valley Powe 598.5 599.9 601.4 603.3 605.2 607.0 608.1
Centerton 5.8 7.7 9.7 12.2 14.6 16.0 16.8
Elliston 17.0 18.3 20.7 23.5 25.6 26.5 27.4
Edwardsport 14.2 15.6 18.1 20.3 22.7 24.1 24.9
Hazleton 14.9 17.3 20.6 22.8 25.7 28.0 28.3
Indianapolis 7.4 7.9 8.9 10.7 12.1 14.0 15.1
Muncie 5.7 6.4 7.1 7.6 8.2 9.0 9.8
Noblesville 8.4 9.2 10.6 13.2 15.6 17.8 18.8
Nora 6.4 7.1 8.2 10.2 12.3 15.4 16.5
Newberry 9.3 10.7 14.1 17.3 20.2 22.2 23.0
Petersburg 15.3 17.7 20.8 22.9 25.2 26.7 26.9
Ravenswood 3.0 3.6 4.5 6.0 7.3 9.5 10.4
Spencer 9.4 10.7 13.4 16.9 19.6 21.0 22.5
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 6.1 6.7 8.2 10.1 12.3 14.9 19.9
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/05/2025 - 06/03/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4
:East Fork White River
Rivervale 7.3 6.8 6.1 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.5
Bedford 5.2 4.5 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.4
Seymour 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.5
Shoals 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.3
Williams 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.1
:Eel River
Bowling Green 5.5 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.2 4.1
:Flatrock River
Columbus 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1
:Wabash River
Covington 6.4 6.1 5.6 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.5
Hutsonville Legac 6.0 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.2
Lafayette 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6
Mount Carmel 6.6 6.3 5.5 4.9 4.2 3.7 3.1
Montezuma 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.4
Riverton 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.5
Terre Haute 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.7 3.6
Vincennes 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.6
:White River
Anderson 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9
Eagle Valley Powe 595.0 594.8 594.7 594.6 594.4 594.3 594.3
Centerton 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5
Elliston 8.9 8.3 7.8 7.4 6.7 6.4 5.8
Edwardsport 7.0 6.4 5.8 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.3
Hazleton 7.8 7.3 6.1 5.1 4.3 3.4 3.0
Indianapolis 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6
Muncie 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
Noblesville 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7
Nora 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.8
Newberry 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.9
Petersburg 6.8 6.4 5.5 4.6 4.0 3.2 2.9
Ravenswood 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Spencer 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.9
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s National Water Prediction Service
(NWPS).
Visit our web site weather.gov/ind for more weather and water
information. For a graphical version of this product visit
weather.gov/ind/SpringHydrologicOutlook.
The next outlook will be issued March 13, 2025.
$$
CP