463
FXUS63 KIND 062251
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
551 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain possibly mixing with snow tonight, all rain Friday

- Additional snow mixing in across north central Indiana Friday night

- Well above normal temperatures expected next week with breezy
  conditions at times

- Precipitation chances return mid to late next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

Tonight.

Skies are expected to continue to gradually clear out from west to
east this afternoon as surface high pressure continues to move in
for a brief period of time. This ridge of high pressure will quickly
push eastwards as a surface low associated with a weak shortwave
aloft is expected to move into the Ohio Valley tomorrow. This low
will be weakening as it arrives with most of the forcing aloft in
the mid-levels. Moisture associated with the wave will allow for
clouds to fill back in towards 08Z with small chances for
precipitation that will be discussed below.

Model soundings show overnight temperatures near freezing so if any
precipitation falls there could be some north to south precipitation
type differences with the potential for some snow to mix in at
times, but confidence that any precipitation falls is fairly low as
the precipitating layer is aloft with some drier air closer to the
surface. Will focus the highest POPs across the northern counties,
but don`t have the confidence to go any higher than chance wording.

Friday and Friday night.

The low levels briefly begin to saturate towards daybreak tomorrow
before the surface flow becomes more southerly which will advect
drier air at the surface with saturation back towards the mid-levels
again. Isentropic lift associated with the strengthening LLJ will
bring some elevated showers towards the afternoon hours. Showers
will continue into the overnight but as temperatures begin to fall,
snow may mix in at times across the northern counties. By daybreak
Saturday, temperatures are expected to fall below freezing for much
of the area with precipitation expected to have ended.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 257 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

Look for mostly quiet weather conditions through Tuesday with gulf
moisture remaining locked to the south and upper ridging building
in. Long range guidance then shows a more active pattern setting up
around mid to late next week as multiple upper level waves track
near the region supporting chances for precipitation. Increasing
warm air advection ahead of these systems will lead to a quick warm
up into next week. Highs in the 40s Saturday are expected to warm
well into the 60s by early next week. Some locations could even
reach or exceed the 70F mark on Tuesday.

An upper wave is expected to move through over the weekend, but a
southern stream trough across the Gulf Coast will substantially
limit moisture return keeping central Indiana dry. Guidance then
shows upper ridging building over much of the central CONUS early
next week allowing quiet weather to persist. Breezy conditions are
likely to develop around Tuesday due to a tightening pressure
gradient between surface high pressure across the Southeast and a
developing surface low over the Plains.

Precipitation chances return by mid-late next week as a weakening
shortwave and attendant surface low approach. Exact details
regarding the track, strength, and precipitation chances/amounts
remains uncertain due to a large spread in models. At least some
light precipitation still looks likely though as a LLJ will help to
transport moisture northward. In addition, ensemble members
generally show the surface low tracking near the region which should
provide sufficient forcing though a more southward track like the
last few runs of the deterministic GFS is suggesting would greatly
limit precipitation chances.

Another more robust system is expected to develop behind this system
and move through the region next weekend. Exact details remain
highly uncertain, but this system will be monitored closely as most
guidance shows strong surface cyclogenesis near the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 551 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

Impacts:
- Scattered light rain possibly mixed with snow predawn hours
  through Friday morning
- Additional rain showers possible Friday afternoon and evening
  focused primarily at KIND and KLAF

Discussion:

Cu has diminished to the east of the terminals late this afternoon
as drier air spreads across the region. Expect mainly clear skies
through much of the evening with mid and high level clouds
overspreading the area from the west into the overnight as a
weakening low pressure approaches from the west. Scattered light
precipitation will move into the region during the predawn hours and
continue through mid morning Friday with little to no impact. Rain
should be the primary precip type but cannot rule out a few snow
flakes mixing in as well...especially at KLAF. Much of the afternoon
will be dry with additional light rain showers by late day into the
evening focused especially at KIND and KLAF. Expect VFR conditions
throughout the day Friday with MVFR ceilings developing Friday
evening.

Westerly winds will diminish with sunset this evening...backing to
S/SW overnight and becoming light. Winds will become southeast
Friday at around 10kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Ryan