388
FXUS63 KIND 241551
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1151 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A very pleasant final week of climatological summer, with below
  normal temperatures and low humidity

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Surface analysis late this morning shows high pressure over the
Dakotas with a ridge axis extending SE to MO/IL and Indiana.
Yesterdays cold front had departed to the east. Cool northwest
surface flow was in place across Central Indiana. GOES16 shows a few
CU across the north central parts of the forecast area. Water Vapor
shows strong subsidence in place across Central Indiana with
northwest flow aloft.

Ongoing forecast remains in good shape. The strong surface high to
the northwest is expected to build southeast, continuing to dominate
our weather. Forecast soundings show mainly a dry column, but do
hint at SCT CU development this afternoon due to daytime heating.
Thus expect skies to become partly cloud this afternoon. Ongoing
temperature forecast remains on target. Overall, only minor changes
made based upon observational trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A cold front is rapidly exiting central Indiana this morning, taking
it with it the last gasps of the prolonged warmth and especially
humidity that have been hallmarks of this unpleasantly humid
summer.

Canadian high pressure will begin to gradually work its
way into the region today and tonight, though arrival of another
shortwave pivoting around the larger upper low centered near James
Bay may produce some additional cloud cover, as well as some lake
effect showers to our north, though alignment of the low to mid
level flow is not well positioned for lengthy survival of these
showers.

Convective temperatures appear to be reachable this afternoon,
producing scattered to broken stratocumulus across the area, which
will largely dissipate with sunset.

A healthy mixed PBL of about 5kft depth will produce some gustiness
to the winds this afternoon, with northwesterly winds around 10KT
gusting to around 20KT at times.

Temperatures today will be pleasant, rising into the 70s as
dewpoints continue to fall. These lower dewpoints will allow for
lows to drop well into the 50s tonight, if not into the upper 40s in
a few spots.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

The first taste of early autumn can be expected across central
Indiana this week, with below normal temperatures and pleasantly low
humidity for the final week of climatological summer. August doesn`t
get much nicer in Indiana than what is on the way for this week.

Canadian high pressure coupled with cyclonic flow aloft will be in
control throughout much of the forecast period, with mild days, cool
nights, and dry weather in the offing as a result.

A couple of shortwaves pivoting through the larger scale cyclonic
flow can be expected, but a dry and broadly subsident column will
likely prevent any precipitation from impacting the area.

Temperatures will be coolest early in the week, with highs
potentially not making it to 70 and lows dropping as low as the mid
40s across northeastern portions of central Indiana Tuesday into
Tuesday night, followed by a very gradual warming trend into next
weekend, which will nonetheless still see temperatures remaining
below normal.

Good PBL mixing should promote lower dewpoints in the afternoons
than depicted by straight NBM, though still likely not enough to any
significant fire weather concerns.

A few nights, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday nights when the
core of the high will be overhead or near, may feature a little
patchy radiation fog late at night to around daybreak, but will
exclude any mention for now as this is far more effectively
predicted in the shorter term.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1151 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Impacts:

- VFR conditions are expected this TAF period.

Discussion:

Strong high pressure will build across the TAF sites and maintain
control over Indiana/s weather through the TAF period.

Diurnal heating this afternoon and again on Monday will lead to some
SCT-BKN cloud clover each afternoon. All clouds will be reside at
VFR levels.

Expect overnight to be clear with unlimited cigs due to the strong
high pressure.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Puma