275
FXUS63 KIND 101708
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
108 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost this morning across the northern half of central
  Indiana

- Continued dry weather expected through the next week, along with
  mild days and cool nights.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Little to no changes made to the forecast with this morning`s
update. The Frost Advisory was allowed to expire at 9 AM as
temperatures across Central and North Central Indiana have risen
into the 40s. Many locations outside of urban areas fell into the
low to mid 30s this morning, with the coldest locations in the
Wabash River Valley and low lying areas. Ample sunshine today will
allow temperatures to rebound quickly into the 60s and low 70s by
this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows a dying complex of showers
and thunderstorms in Western Illinois and Missouri, but the only
impacts locally will be high clouds streaming in overhead later
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Main focus for the short term is on a cold front passing through the
area tonight.

Temperatures this morning have fallen as low as the mid 30s in a few
spots, primarily northwest in typical cool spots. A few other
portions of the northern forecast area will get down to the upper
30s as well, and will keep frost advisory as is, though coverage
will likely be patchy at best in most areas.

Ample sunshine and winds becoming southerly today should drive
temperatures at least a few degrees above persistence into the upper
60s to low 70s, and this may still be a bit too cool depending upon
thickness of mid and high cloud as it arrives later in the day.

The cold front is poised to push through the area tonight into
Saturday morning, though any forcing associated with the compact
upper low accompanying it will be displaced to the north/northeast
of the area. Additionally, forecast soundings are extremely dry
below about 5-8kft, with dewpoint depressions in that layer as high
as 15-20 degrees C - such that even a sprinkle mention seems
excessive, though certainly a drop or two here or there wouldn`t be
a complete shock. Will go with a dry forecast nonetheless, with
partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight the most likely outcome with
ample mid level cloud expected.

This cloud cover will keep lows tonight up substantially over this
morning`s readings, despite the frontal passage, though guidance is
likely under representing the degree to which the dry ground will
allow cooling, especially early in the evening before the thicker
cloud cover arrives, and have nudged down to the upper 40s most
areas, with lows around 50 in the Indy metro and near Vincennes.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to be the
dominant features throughout the vast majority of the long term
period, and as a result, a fairly stable forecast of prolonged dry
weather, mostly clear skies, and mostly near to slightly above
normal high temperatures, and near to slightly below normal low
temperatures can be expected.

The ongoing/intensifying drought and associated dry ground, along
with a lack of significant moisture transport into the area, will
continue to promote exaggerated diurnal ranges over those that might
otherwise be expected, and have blended in the higher/lower end of
the guidance envelope for the max/min temperatures respectively to
account for this, as well as blending in MOS/NBM 10th percentile on
surface dewpoints.

Heights across the area look to be maximized early next week, and
this will likely be the warmest period of the forecast, with highs
well into the 70s across the area, and an outside shot at an 80
degree reading or two, primarily in the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 108 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Impacts:

- none

Discussion:

High pressure remains the dominant weather influence across the
state through the period keeping conditions VFR and winds below 10
kts. Satellite imagery shows high level clouds pushing in from the
northwest associated with a dying area of showers in Illinois. While
no precipitation is expected locally, expect a broken deck at 25000
ft through this evening.

There is an area of lower stratus along the approaching front which
should make its way into Central Indiana after 03z, bringing cigs
down into the 3000-5000ft range. There is a slight chance that cigs
briefly become MVFR overnight but confidence in this is low enough
to omit it from the TAF. No vis issues expected.

Light southerly winds this afternoon become light and variable
overnight. The front passes through the region overnight resulting
in winds shifting to the northeast after 15z tomorrow, still under
10 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CM
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...CM