444
FXUS63 KIND 211045
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
645 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures near to below normal throughout the next week, with
  little to no chance for rain; temperatures well below normal late
  in the weekend into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Early This Morning...

Clouds will continue to spread west across central Indiana early
this morning with continued easterly flow. Some patchy fog is
possible where clouds take longer to arrive or if any holes develop
in the clouds, but given recent trends, odds are low.

Some sprinkles have been noted in surface observations upstream in
Ohio, and these may reach portions of the eastern and southeastern
forecast area. Will continue to monitor and will add sprinkles if
necessary.

Today...

Thanks to a continued inversion, clouds will linger across central
Indiana this morning. Some diminishment will occur this
afternoon, especially northwest where some drier air will work
in. Will go above guidance sky cover as it often gets rid of clouds
too quickly.

Can`t rule out some isolated sprinkles, but for now feel coverage
will be too low to mention.

Clouds will help keep a lid on temperatures, especially east and
southeast where clouds are expected to last longest. Will go below
guidance for highs to account for this. Highs will be in the middle
70s to lower 80s.

Tonight...

Partly cloudy conditions should continue across the area into the
evening. Some lower clouds will attempt to move in again from the
east. Will thus keep skies partly cloudy overall for most areas.

Low temperatures will generally be in the lower 60s. If clouds are
less than expected, lows may dip into the upper 50s some areas.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

A significant change is in the offing for the latter portion of the
weekend into next week, as a reinforcing shot of cooler air arrives
in the region, bringing further relief from what has largely been a
warm and very humid summer across central Indiana.

Surface high pressure will be in control of the region at daybreak
Friday, with seasonable highs in the low to mid 80s expected and
dewpoints still seasonably humid in the mid 60s.

Another cold front, though somewhat moisture depleted, arrives in
the region late Saturday into Saturday evening, bringing a
reinforcing shot of cooler air as a large upper low drops into the
Great Lakes. Most guidance is dry with this feature for the most
part, though slight chance PoPs will be carried for small portions
of the area for a stray shower.

It wouldn`t be shocking to see some lake effect sprinkles or showers
make their way into some portion of central Indiana later in the
weekend as well, though low to mid level flow in guidance is not
well-aligned at the time to promote lengthy lake effect plumes. The
more noticeable impact may be to increase low level cloud cover
across portions of central Indiana.

In the wake of this second boundary, a refreshing change is expected
late in the weekend into next week, with highs in the 70s to near
80, lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and dewpoints much lower in
the mid 40s to mid 50s, making for a very pleasant final week of
climatological summer. The cooler and more comfortable conditions
appear likely to persist beyond the 7 day period into the Labor Day
weekend, as larger scale troughing continues to dominate over much
of the central and eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings this morning at IND/BMG

- MVFR or worse fog late in the period at LAF

Discussion:

An area of stratocumulus over the area will persist much of the day,
with MVFR ceilings at IND/BMG through midday/early afternoon. VFR
will return at all sites this afternoon, with skies clearing tonight.

The clearing skies and light winds may allow fog formation,
particularly at LAF, where guidance suggests MVFR or worse fog. Will
carry 3SM and a BCFG mention.

Winds will generally be north/northeasterly through the period less
than 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Nield