546
FXUS63 KIND 071349
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
949 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Haze at times today with visibility as low as 2-3 miles

- Active weather continues through tonight, with most coverage
  of rain expected tonight

- Some localized heavy rain is possible tonight

- Cooler than normal with periodic rain early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Satellite imagery shows low-level stratus lingering across central
portions of Indiana, especially from Indianapolis to Lafayette.
Additionally, a thicker plume of wildfire smoke can be seen drifting
southwestward over northern Ohio and into northeastern Indiana. This
smoke is surface-based and upstream observations show visibility as
low as 2 to 3 miles. Locations from Indianapolis to Muncie have
likewise been dropping to under 6 miles at times.

We`ve introduced haze to the forecast through the morning and into
the afternoon hours. Based on HRRR Smoke model runs, it seems that
the haze shouldn`t reach the far southern portions of our CWA as low-
level flow turns southerly before it arrives. Southerly flow should
then cause the haze to gradually drift northward later this
afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, much of the previous forecast and forecast philosophy
remains. We`ve lowered high temps a bit due to increasing haze and
high-level cloud cover quickly advancing from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Early This Morning...

Some isolated to scattered showers continued across mainly the
southeast half of central Indiana early this morning. These will
continue to move east and diminish as forcing from an exiting wave
diminishes.

Patchy fog or areas of fog are still expected to continue to develop
with low level moisture lingering across much of the area. Will
continue to monitor, but with the expected cloud cover, do not
expect widespread dense fog to develop.

Today...

Any fog/stratus should mix out during the morning, but overall
partly to mostly cloudy conditions look to persist during the
morning. With the area in between systems, the morning should be
dry.

Forcing from an initial upper wave will move in this afternoon.
Initially, forcing will be just be enough for isolated to scattered
convection. By the end of the afternoon, forcing should be enough
for numerous showers and scattered storms across the southwest half
or so of the area (closer to the better forcing from the wave).
Elsewhere, scattered showers/isolated storms will continue.

Best instability and shear look to remain south of central Indiana,
so do not expect severe weather at this time.

With expected cloud cover today, highs in the upper 70s to around 80
look reasonable.

Tonight...

Another upper wave, this one farther north, will move into the area.
A surface wave will accompany it. Plentiful moisture will accompany
these features. This will lead to rain across central Indiana during
the night. Will go likely category or higher PoPs all areas.

There looks to be a period of prolonged convergence across northern
portions of central Indiana during the night, with perhaps some
frontogenetical forcing aloft. This may result in some localized
heavy rain across portions of the northern forecast area.

HREF Local Probability Matched Mean QPF totals show this potential
as well, with amounts over 3 inches shown in isolated areas. Will
mention a heavy rain threat tonight.

Instability and shear will continue to be low enough that severe
storms are not expected. Lows will be in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Sunday Through Tuesday.

A stronger upper level low will sink southeastward in the aftermath
of the Saturday system which will bring cooler air and renewed
lighter rain late Sunday into Monday. There is some model
differences towards Monday as to where the jet stream will set up
which will impact where the better chances of precipitation will be.
Models have shifted the axis a bit further north with a southwest to
northeast orientation where isentropic lift should bring a swath of
0.25 to 0.75 inches of precipitation Sunday night into Monday. Poor
lapse rates and weak shear aloft will limit the severe weather
potential, but with some DCAPE, can`t rule out an isolated damaging
wind gust.

Broad northwesterly flow aloft will dominate the weather pattern for
Tuesday as the aforementioned low pressure system slowly exits the
Great Lakes region. Outside of an isolate drain shower across the
southern counties, conditions will remain dry and cool through the
night.

Wednesday Through Friday.

The upper level low will spin across the Great Lakes region into the
middle of the week which will help to keep temperatures slightly
below normal with higher than normal cloud cover. Periodic rain will
impact central Indiana but with no connection to Gulf air, amounts
will be light. High pressure begins to build going into Thursday as
the upper level low finally pushes off to the east with weak surface
winds and gradually warming temperatures to finish the work week.
Looking towards the weekend and beyond, the pattern begins to shift
more active again with above normal precipitation likely.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 647 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR visibility and IFR ceilings early in fog/stratus

- MVFR ceilings possible this morning after fog mixes out

- Scattered convection will develop during the afternoon with more
  widespread showers and scattered storms tonight

- MVFR and potential IFR ceilings overnight

Discussion:

Stratus will continue to slide southwest and may reach KIND around
valid time, so will err on side of caution and include a TEMPO there
for low stratus. Stratus will continue early at KLAF.

Fog/stratus will mix out early, likely with some brief MVFR ceilings
as they do so. VFR should then continue mid to late morning through
the afternoon, but rain coverage will increase late in the day
bringing a return to MVFR. As the night progresses, ceilings will
drop into low MVFR or IFR.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...50