


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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457 FXUS63 KIND 130956 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 556 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather through Friday with warmer than normal temperatures continuing - Rain chances return Friday night into the weekend - Cooler temperatures arrive Sunday && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Today. Quiet conditions are expected through the remainder of the overnight with no impactful weather outside of patchy fog towards daybreak. Winds have have dropped to near calm over the last hour with dew point depressions gradually decreasing in nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions. Towards daybreak expect to see at least some shallow field fog and localized fog along streams. This fog will quickly erode by around 9AM as the dew point depressions begin to increase. Expect to see another mild day today with cloud cover gradually increasing through the day as the mid and upper levels saturate due to moisture advecting in from the west. The more widespread cloud cover will remain in Illinois, but expect at least some cirrus aloft. Temperatures today will end up a bit warmer than previous days with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Diurnal cu coverage will again be minimal with saturation at the top of the boundary layer not expected. Tonight. Milder temperatures are expected tonight, especially across the western counties where mid and high level cloud coverage will be highest. Expect to see lows ranging from the upper 40s in the east to the mid 50s in the west. Skies across the east will be clear to mostly clear which may allow for some patchy fog again towards daybreak, but think that the better chances and greater coverage will be further east into Ohio. && .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Tuesday through Friday... Dry and warm weather is expected to continue through the work week. Models show strong upper ridging settling over the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday before reorganizing and strengthening on Wednesday through Friday. By Thursday night and Friday this ridge axis is expected to be over Indiana. This is a favorable pattern for subsidence and drying. Little in the way of forcing dynamics appear to be present as this feature passes. Within the lower levels, a very large area of high pressure is suggested to develop, engulfing the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley and the Gulf Coast. This large high will pass across Central Indiana on Wednesday through Thursday, providing more dry but warm fall weather. Other than Tuesday, when highs will reach the upper 70s, Temperatures should slowly moderate as the week progresses, with highs again reaching the middle and upper 70s by Friday. High temperatures for much of the week look to be 7-13 degrees above normal. Friday night through Saturday... Models show that as the ridge axis departs to the east on Friday, southwest flow aloft becomes present over Central Indiana. Within this southeast flow aloft, a wave of forcing ahead of an approaching surface cold front is suggested to push across Central Indiana on Friday Night and into Saturday. At this time ample moisture within the mid levels appears to be present on Friday Night. Thus this may be our next best chance for rainfall across Central Indiana. Will use the higher pops at that time as these features appear available. Precipitation chances should linger on Saturday as the surface front is shown to slowly pass. Forecast sounding again here show plentiful moisture available, so again, pops still will be needed at this time. Sunday... In the wake of the front on Sunday, strong subsidence and drying is shown to continue. This will be associated with the expected arrival of high pressure. Will trend toward a dry forecast at that time with more seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 555 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Impacts: - Fog possible through 13Z Discussion: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of brief and shallow fog through 13Z. Confidence is highest at HUF and BMG, but will also be possible at LAF. Skies will remain mostly clear today with only passing cirrus. Cloud coverage will gradually increase at LAF and HUF tonight while remaining mostly clear at BMG and IND. Winds will generally be out of the east to northeast at 5-10 mph through tomorrow. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...White LONG TERM...Puma AVIATION...White