611
FXUS63 KIND 092217
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
617 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures expected this week with breezy
  conditions and low RHs at times

- At least low potential for heavy rain and minor flooding early
  next weekend along with strong, gusty winds

- Greater uncertainty in severe weather potential late this week
  though chances appear low at this time

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Tonight.

Quiet weather is expected to continue into tonight with surface wind
speeds gradually decreasing as the boundary layer begins to decouple
and mixing ceases. In the meantime, expect sunny skies with winds of
10-15 mph through the afternoon with highs climbing into the upper
50s to low 60s. An upper level low pressure system will continue to
move through the southern Gulf states through the night but no
impacts are expected locally as even the northern extent of the
clouds gets to around Tennessee. Lows tonight are expected to fall
into the upper 30s with temperatures forecast to remain above
freezing over the next 7-10 days.

Monday.

The warming trend will continue into Monday with another sunny and
quiet day of weather. Dew points will gradually creep higher through
the morning as the southwesterly flow strengthens, but expect
convective temperatures to not be met again which combined with the
dry column will allow for little to no clouds. This dry airmass will
create RH values as low as 25 percent which will create slightly
elevated fire weather danger as has been seen today with several
small field fires.

The boundary layer should reach up to around 4-5kft which will allow
for some wind gusts to 20 mph through the afternoon hours tomorrow
but otherwise no other weather impacts expected with highs in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Monday night through Wednesday night...

Look for quiet weather conditions to continue through Wednesday with
upper ridging across the region. The main story early in the
extended will be the anomalous warmth which is expected to continue
through the period due to predominately south-southwesterly surface
flow. Portions of south-central IN could reach the 70F mark by
Tuesday with more widespread temperatures in the 70s through the
week.

A cold front is expected to move in from the north late Tuesday
providing a wind shift and brief cooldown. Most models show the
front stalling out near central Indiana as mean flow becomes
parallel to the boundary which may result in far southern counties
seeing a negligible difference in temperatures. Despite the slight
cooldown, temperatures quickly recover on Wednesday with southerly
flow returning ahead of a weak system.

Thursday onward...

Low precipitation chances return Thursday as a weakening shortwave
and attendant surface low approach. Rain chances continue to trend
lower due to weaker overall forcing in latest guidance. However,
sufficient moisture return combined with daytime heating and
possibly slight forcing from the aforementioned disturbance could
still support isolated convection.

A much more potent upper trough is expected to move across the
central CONUS late this week promoting strong surface cyclogenesis
over the Plains. The system will then move northeastward over
portions of the Midwest with a strong LLJ advecting gulf moisture
northward. Exact details remain uncertain due to discrepancies in
model solutions, but a widespread impactful system is likely. There
are also a few key points that are evident despite differences in
guidance.

The first is that strong dynamics and rich gulf moisture streaming
northward could support a heavy rain threat. There is still
uncertainty on how far north moisture surges and rainfall totals,
but most guidance suggest at least a low threat for heavy rain or
minor flooding. The second key point is that a strong pressure
gradient from deep surface cyclogenesis will likely lead to windy
conditions Friday into Saturday.

There is also potential for severe weather over the central CONUS
though greater uncertainty remains with this threat. Latest guidance
has come into better agreement showing the best alignment of deep-
layer shear and instability to the west of central IN. The severe
weather threat across the area appears low at this time, but model
trends will continue to be monitored closely as this could change.
Stay tuned for updates in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 617 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

Quiet weather will continue through Monday evening as the Ohio
Valley remains under the influence of high pressure. Light southwest
winds are expected tonight...then increasing to around 10kts again
on Monday with the potential for occasionally higher gusts to near
20kts at KLAF where the pressure gradient will be a bit tighter.
Other than a few wispy cirrus at times...clear skies are expected.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Ryan