476
FXUS63 KIND 222238
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
538 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for flurries or light snow showers late tonight into
  Thursday

- Another shot of cooler air will briefly move in late Thursday into
  Friday

- Temperatures rise above freezing by this weekend with even warmer
  air for the first half of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 319 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

The initial recovery from the deep freeze has begun and almost all
of the forecast area has now warmed into a range from the mid teens
to the lower 20s as of 19Z. Getting a bit more sunshine this
afternoon than was originally anticipated which is also aiding in
the warmup. Despite the gusty winds...wind chills have largely risen
above zero and into the single digits.

While the warmup has started...the process will be slow and thanks
to the passage of a cold front on Thursday stunting more extensive
temp rises until Saturday. That front will also produce scattered
flurries and a few snow showers for Thursday.

As mentioned above...have nudged down cloud cover over most of the
forecast area for the next hour or so before expanding clouds over
southern Illinois return through late day. Wind gusts to this point
have peaked in the 25-30mph range and expect that to continue for
the next few hours before diminishing this evening. RH progs suggest
another period with mainly clear skies later this evening before
thicker clouds encompass the region overnight in advance of the
approaching boundary.

Deeper forcing aloft and moisture will be displaced north across the
Great Lakes late tonight into Thursday in closer proximity to the
surface wave. More widespread snow will be found north of the
forecast area as a result but the potential for scattered flurries
will drift into the northern Wabash Valley after midnight and expand
to the southeast through daybreak Thursday. May see a few light snow
showers as well as the front sweeps across the region through early
Thursday afternoon. Flurries will linger into the afternoon over the
eastern half of the forecast area within the cold advection in the
postfrontal airmass but eventually drier air will arrive from the
west by late day. Not out of the question to see a tenth or two of
accumulation in spots focused across the northeast part of the
forecast area but overall this will not be an impactful event for
central Indiana. Skies will be cloudy over much of the region with
stratus persisting for much of the day and into the evening.

Temps...expect lows tonight a good 15 to 20 degrees warmer than
Tuesday night with the region remaining in the teens.  Low level
thermals support mid to upper 20s across much of the forecast area
Thursday with the potential for far southern counties to make a run
at the freezing mark in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 319 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

The long term period will largely be dry with a general warming
trend into next weekend. The start of the period will still be cold,
however, behind the passage of a cold front leaving lows in the
single digits Thursday night and highs Friday expected to be from
the upper teens to mid 20s. Depending on the timing of the front,
can`t rule out a few flurries lingering into Thursday evening. Other
than those flurries, the remainder of the long  term looks to stay
dry despite a couple of passing waves aloft expected. Models are
showing that much of the moisture and forcing with these systems
should stay to the south and east of central Indiana, leaving little
to work with over our forecast area.

By this weekend, surface flow will shift to out of the south to
southwest which, other than a quick passing front Sunday, will
persist for the remainder of the period, helping to advect warmer
air to the area and reach above normal temperatures by next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 538 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Impacts:

- Winds from 170-200 degrees around 10 knots and gusts to near 20
  knots through 03z Thursday

- MVFR ceilings and flurries possible after 09z-13z

Discussion:

VFR flying conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR with
flurries possible by Thursday morning as a cold front and upper
trough approach from the west.

The gusty south winds will drop off to 5 to 10 knots tonight and
shift to the northwest after 17z, in the wake of the front.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MK