778
FXUS63 KIND 261903
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
303 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost possible tonight across portions of northwest central
  IN

- Above normal temperatures return by early next week

- Active and stormy pattern from Tuesday through Thursday, with the
  potential for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening

- Cooler temperatures return by next weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Rest of This Afternoon...

Cumulus will continue to diminish with ongoing mixing. Winds will
also diminish as high pressure nudges in.

Tonight...

With high pressure in control, winds will become light this evening.
What`s left of any cumulus will dissipate early, allowing
temperatures to cool quickly this evening. Some cirrus will move in
as well.

Overnight, some additional high clouds will be moving in from
convection to the southwest.

Temperatures will be below normal, with lows in the upper 30s
northwest to the middle 40s south. The light winds and cold
temperatures may allow for some patchy frost to form northwest,
especially in favored cold spots. The high clouds late tonight
should help keep frost from becoming more widespread there.

Sunday...

An upper wave across Missouri will try to move east as it weakens.
Any rain associated with this feature will encounter a harsh
environment with dry air and high pressure at the surface. Thus,
believe that only some additional clouds will move into central
Indiana, especially southwest.

Southeast winds and some sunshine will allow temperatures to rebound
into the 60s for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Transient surface high pressure should provide a chilly start to the
period with lows dipping into the 40s Monday morning. Warm air
quickly returns as the high pulls away with winds becoming southerly
by the afternoon. Strong warm air advection ahead of a developing
low over the Great Plains will allow the warmth to build further.
Temperatures are expected to rise into the high 70s to near 80 both
Monday and Tuesday.

The aforementioned system will pass well to our north but drag a
surface cold front through the region on Tuesday. Guidance shows
rich moisture ahead of the boundary leading to moderate to high
instability (over 2000 J/Kg). Additionally, wind shear between 30 to
50 knots looks to be present. As such, strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Recent trends in guidance have been showing the parent trough
exiting a bit quicker to the northeast. As a result, some ridging is
now shown over the Great Plains with troughing over the Rockies.
This could reduce synoptic-scale forcing locally as the surface low
is modeled to be well into Canada by Tuesday morning. The lessening
of strong large-scale forcing may help to keep things more
scattered, since there should be at least some lift available along
the cold front and the presence of a nearby jet entrance.

As for convective mode and hazards, the lack of broad synoptic
forcing may help to keep activity concentrated along the cold front.
Shear vectors are roughly 30 degrees off the initiating boundary so
activity may begin as discrete cells and gradually grow upscale into
a line or line segments. All hazards may be present, as model
hodographs show some curvature (tornado potential), especially north
and east, along with steep lapse rates and tall CAPE profiles (large
hail and wind). Guidance is still shifting slowly and hasn`t locked
onto a solution just yet, so this may change. Stay tuned for updates
as model consensus and forecast confidence increases.

As the front stalls, the trough out in the Rockies should begin to
eject late Wednesday or Thursday. Guidance shows a potent wave
developing and riding northeastward along the boundary towards
Indiana. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible
along the stalled front and with the wave as it approaches. Heavy
rainfall may be possible at times Wednesday and Thursday.

After that system departs, its trailing cold front brings a return
to cooler temps and quiet weather with high pressure settling in.
Quiet weather continues to the end of the period as the large-scale
pattern looks to become highly amplified.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Impacts:

- Brief MVFR ceilings possible early

- Gusts around 20kt early

Discussion:

Cumulus and stratocumulus will continue to thin out this afternoon.
Even so, some brief MVFR ceilings remain possible early before more
of the clouds break up. Otherwise, only some passing high clouds are
expected.

Winds will diminish this afternoon as high pressure builds in, but a
few gusts around 20kt are possible early before winds diminish.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...50