048
FXUS63 KIND 142334
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
734 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather through Friday with warmer than normal temperatures
continuing

- The next best chance for rain is Saturday and Sunday.
Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday.

- Turning cooler Sunday and Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Quiet weather is expected through the period as upper ridging and
surface high pressure remain in place. Current satellite imagery
shows mostly clear skies over much of the forecast area with the
ridge axis clearly defined along the Mississippi river as widespread
cloud cover exists on the western side. The upper ridge sharpens
over the next 24 hours over the Mid Mississippi valley as a weak
wave rides up and over and into the lower Great Lakes region.
Subsidence under the high and on the east side of ridge and very dry
antecedent conditions should prevent any measurable precipitation
from sustaining itself into North Central Indiana tonight or
tomorrow. Main focus for the period will be mid to high level clouds
advecting in from the northwest associated with the wave and dying
areas of precipitation. Thickest cloud cover should remain over
North Central Indiana closer to the better moisture advection aloft,
while clear skies remain further south. Any cloud cover overnight
should gradually diminish into Wednesday afternoon.

Going a few degrees above guidance tonight for low temperatures,
especially along and north of I-70 where increasing clouds should
provide some insulation from overnight heat loss. Lows tonight range
from the mid 50s further north to lower 50s in the south where skies
remain clear. On the other hand, expect cooler high temperatures in
the mid 60s to low 70s for those with cloud cover tomorrow while
southern portions of the state rise into the mid 70s to near 80 once
again.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Wednesday Night through Friday...

Models show strong ridging aloft on Wednesday night over the plains
states, drifting over Indiana on Thursday before reaching the
Appalachians by Friday Night. Subsidence associated with this ridge
will keep dry weather in place across Central Indiana through the
second half of the work week. Meanwhile at the surface, a very
large, associated area of high pressure will be moving across
Indiana and the Great Lakes through Thursday Night, reaching
Appalachia by Friday. This will keep a cooler east or
southeasterly surface wind component on Wednesday Night and
Thursday, before becoming more southerly on Friday. Forecast
soundings remain dry, thus more mostly sunny days and mostly clear
nights will be expected. High temperatures will slowly moderate
as winds become southerly on Friday. Expect highs around 70 on
Thursday and middle 70s on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...

The best chances for rain in the forecast are found here. Models
show southwest flow in place aloft over Indiana, This flow was
associated with an approaching broad trough over the northern plains.
Models suggest the arrival of forcing dynamics streaming across
Indiana on Saturday and again on Sunday as the upper level trough
axis is expected to pass and become negatively tilted in the
process. Ample moisture appears present at this time on Saturday and
Sunday as the mid levels show saturation. Setup appears favorable
for some thunderstorms ahead and along the cold front on Saturday.
However confidence for severe is low at the moment. Forecast
soundings show best saturation on Saturday afternoon with minimal
CAPE. Some speed shear appears present.  Flooding aspect confidence
is also low due to dry ground and relatively quick moving showers
and storms within a progressive flow.

Monday and Tuesday...

In the wake of the departure of the strong trough, strong ridging
over the plains returns over the plains and begins to build across
Indiana on Monday into Tuesday. This results in a moderately
amplified pattern overall, but overall this will be favorable for
subsidence over Indiana. Again, Models suggest dry air associated
with surface high pressure in place. Thus will trend toward a dry
forecast with cooler temperatures, as highs will be in the upper 50s
and low 60s, near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Impacts:

- Ground fog possible at HUF and BMG tonight.
- Near-MVFR ceilings possible at LAF on Wednesday.
- Low probability light rain shower near LAF as well.

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Like previous nights, some ground fog is possible at HUF and BMG
tonight. Fog potential may be limited due to cloud cover approaching
from the west overnight. Should fog occur, brief reductions in
visibility are possible.

Mid to high-level clouds build in from the west overnight ahead of
an approaching storm system. This system should weaken with eastward
extent, but clouds should become thick enough to become a mid-level
ceiling between 5000-10000ft by 09z or so.

Ceilings may become a bit lower near LAF tomorrow potentially as low
as 3000-4000ft. A few sprinkles are possible but the chances of this
are quite low at the moment (less than 15 percent).

Winds should remain light and variable overnight, with perhaps a
dominant northeasterly component. Winds pick up a bit during the
afternoon Wednesday but should remain under 10kt maintaining a
northeasterly direction.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Eckhoff