578
FXUS63 KIND 041327
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
927 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms today, mainly across southwestern Indiana

- Daily chances for showers and storms continues through the week

- Temperatures trending back to normal as the week progresses with
  hot and humid conditions for the weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 927 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Showers continue to drift slowly across the lower Wabash Valley this
morning although rainfall rates are substantially lower than prior
to daybreak. Mid and high level clouds had settled across the rest
of the forecast area with the inverted surface trough extending from
southwest Indiana into the lower Mississippi Valley. 13Z
temperatures were in the 60s in most locations.

The inverted trough is likely to move little today...if anything it
may shift west slightly. With the bulk of the moisture and lift
associated with the feature on the eastern flank of the boundary...
this will keep the potential for scattered convection into the
afternoon focused across the southwest half of the forecast area and
especially across the lower Wabash Valley. Residual dry air
associated with high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will
stunt northward moisture advection for much of the day and keep any
rain generally confined to the south and west of Interstate 74 into
the early evening.

While there was not any lightning earlier this morning...the
addition of weak instability levels for the afternoon supports
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The primary focus remains on
the potential for slow moving downpours and localized flooding which
we have already seen occur early this morning across parts of
Daviess and Knox Counties. The lower Wabash Valley has been the
wettest part of the forecast area since early last week which
heightens the flooding risk with any additional storms later today.

The abundance in cloud cover will keep highs confined to the upper
70s and lower 80s. Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Today.

Main focus for the short term period today will be tracking an
inverted trough with some tropical influences and how it is
expected to bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
portions of southern Indiana. As of early this morning, coverage in
showers is limited to just the far southern portions of the state,
but expect to see at least a few showers towards Vincennes and
Bedford towards daybreak. By mid-afternoon diurnal heating will
allow for 1000-15000 J/kg of CAPE. This instability combined with
forcing associated with the trough to bring increased coverage in
showers and better chances for rumbles of thunder.

Primary concerns with these showers and storms will be localized
flooding due to heavy rain rates and slow storm motion. Areas to
the north and east of Indianapolis should remain dry today with
model soundings showing a lack of the deeper moisture as compared
to areas closer to Vincennes. Temperatures will remain cooler than
normal today with expected highs in the low 80s but as low level
moisture advects into the area, dew points in the low to mid 60s
will become more widespread towards the evening.

Tonight.

As diurnal heating comes to an end shower coverage should gradually
decrease through the night but with the trough in the vicinity, at
least a few showers should continue through much of the night
especially as models continue to show moisture advection in the
lower levels. The increased near surface moisture will keep
temperatures more mild tonight with expected lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Tuesday Through Thursday.

A similar pattern will continue Tuesday into Wednesday with the
aforementioned trough stalling across the lower Ohio Valley which
will bring daily chances for showers and storms through Wednesday,
mainly across the southwestern counties but with coverage increasing
towards central and north central Indiana. Highs will also gradually
warm through the week as the surface flow gains a slightly more
southerly component with highs in the mid 80s by Wednesday. The
trough will become more diffuse on Thursday which coincides with the
ridge to the west gradually building eastward and helping push the
jet stream further north into Canada. This will help to limit the
rain chances Thursday other than a stray diurnally induced
thunderstorm.

Friday Through Sunday.

Hot and humid conditions expected Friday into the weekend with model
soundings showing convective temperatures likely to be reached which
combined with a lack of warmer air aloft to allow for diurnally
driven convection each afternoon. Daily highs should climb into the
upper 80s to near 90 with dew points in the low 70s. These will
combine to bring elevated heat risk with peak heat index values in
the mid to upper 90s, but without the richer surface moisture that
was seen last week, heat headlines look unlikely at this time.
Looking into early next week, a frontal system looks to move through
bringing better chances for rain before stalling and leading to a
period of hot and humid conditions through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 547 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys at times at HUF and BMG this afternoon due
  to convection

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of the threat
of showers/storms at HUF and BMG. This threat will be greatest
during the afternoon, from around 18Z through 00Z where a PROB30
will be mentioned. There is a lower chance for VFR showers at BMG
and HUF before 18Z but confidence is too low for a mention.
Elsewhere, winds will generally be easterly at 5-9kts with ceilings
generally around 050.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White