882
FNUS73 KILX 161355
FWSILX

Spot Forecast for Middle Fork Archery Unit...IDNR
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (217) 732-3089 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

With surface high pressure overhead, mostly sunny skies and deep
mixing leading to low surface RH values (min RH between 20 and 25
percent) are forecast for today. There is a 40 percent chance for
showers and even a couple thunderstorms tonight into Thursday
morning, but conditions are expected to turn drier during the
afternoon with some breaks of sunshine. Mixing is expected to be
shallow for most of the day tomorrow, but south-southeast winds
gusting 30 to 40 mph will result in fair to good ventilation.
There is a 20% chance for a stray storm tomorrow evening into
early Friday morning, but the better chance (80 percent) will
arrive late Friday evening as a cold front approaches from the
west.


.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers.
Temperature.........60 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................58 percent at ignition...Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 17 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 16 to 22 mph with gusts to around
                    40 mph.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2100 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 24 to 31 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /34000 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...Fair
                    /57500 knot-ft/.

TIME (CDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........84     92     82     72
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............60     61     63     64
RH..............58     60     58     56
20 ft wind......S 16   S 20   S 20   S 20
20 ft wind gust.30     33     32     32
Mix hgt (ft)....1700   2000   2100   1800
Transport wind..S 24   S 28   S 31   S 31
Vrate kt-ft/1K..34     47     55     49
Ventrate Cat....POOR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight.
Temperature.........Min 56.
RH..................Max 84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 15 to 16 mph with gusts to around
                    31 mph.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 29 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11800 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........68     63     60     59     51     39
Weather cov.....CHANCE                      S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............61     58     57     58     59     59
RH..............65     72     72     69     72     80
20 ft wind......S 20   S 20   S 18   S 18   S 18   S 18
20 ft wind gust.31     31     29     28     28     28
Mix hgt (ft)....1500   1100   900    700    700    800
Transport wind..S 29   S 26   S 25   S 22   S 20   S 20
Vrate kt-ft/1K..39     26     20     14     12     13
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...Bumgardner
Requested by...Kaleb Wood
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2510432.0/ILX
.DELDT 04/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kaleb.wood@illinois.gov