Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions:
1
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FGUS73 KILX 012122
ESFILX
ILC009-017-025-033-057-079-095-101-113-123-125-129-137-143-147-
155-159-167-169-179-183-203-022300-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Lincoln IL
419 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 09/30/2024 - 12/29/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Illinois River
Henry 23.0 24.0 31.0 : 9 13 7 12 <5 <5
Peoria 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 14 22 5 9 <5 <5
Peoria L/D 447.0 449.0 455.0 : 8 14 6 10 <5 <5
Havana 14.0 17.0 23.0 : 27 43 10 18 <5 5
Beardstown 14.0 18.0 28.0 : 28 37 11 16 <5 <5
:Mackinaw River
Congerville 13.0 14.0 20.0 : 6 9 5 8 <5 <5
:Spoon River
London Mills 15.0 21.0 24.0 : 10 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
Seville 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 8 15 <5 6 <5 <5
:Sangamon River
Monticello 13.0 17.0 20.0 : 32 28 <5 <5 <5 <5
Riverton 23.0 26.0 29.0 : 8 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Petersburg 23.0 24.0 33.0 : 9 9 8 7 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Greenview 16.0 17.0 20.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Sangamon River
Oakford 471.0 472.9 478.5 : 13 14 7 5 <5 <5
Chandlerville 456.6 459.0 462.0 : 18 17 9 6 <5 <5
:Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0 37.0 41.0 : 42 31 8 6 <5 <5
Ste. Marie 19.0 20.0 27.0 : 27 16 22 13 <5 <5
:Little Wabash River
Clay City 18.0 22.0 25.0 : 78 52 19 10 <5 <5
:Vermilion River
Danville 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 9 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 09/30/2024 - 12/29/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Illinois River
Henry 14.8 14.9 15.4 16.3 17.8 22.5 26.0
Peoria 11.8 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.6 19.5 22.2
Peoria L/D 431.3 431.8 434.1 435.8 440.2 446.7 449.5
Havana 5.0 5.1 7.1 9.9 14.2 17.2 19.7
Beardstown 9.5 9.8 10.4 11.0 15.0 19.9 21.8
:Mackinaw River
Congerville 1.1 1.3 2.0 3.4 6.2 8.7 14.8
:Spoon River
London Mills 2.8 3.4 4.6 6.7 11.8 15.0 18.3
Seville 5.6 6.2 7.4 9.7 16.2 20.4 24.5
:Sangamon River
Monticello 5.6 6.3 7.4 10.7 13.7 14.6 16.9
Riverton 6.5 6.6 8.3 12.6 17.8 21.4 24.2
Petersburg 5.9 6.1 7.2 9.9 15.6 22.0 26.5
:Salt Creek
Greenview 1.7 2.1 3.3 5.6 9.5 13.0 16.9
:Sangamon River
Oakford 457.4 457.7 459.1 461.9 467.2 472.0 474.1
Chandlerville 444.7 444.9 446.4 449.4 454.9 458.8 460.6
:Embarras River
Lawrenceville 20.1 21.6 24.6 28.1 34.2 35.8 38.9
Ste. Marie 4.0 5.7 8.6 13.5 19.5 22.2 22.7
:Little Wabash River
Clay City 11.7 13.6 18.9 20.2 21.4 23.0 24.3
:Vermilion River
Danville 4.4 5.0 7.3 10.3 12.6 16.7 22.2
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 09/30/2024 - 12/29/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Illinois River
Henry 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.1
Peoria 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5
Peoria L/D 430.2 430.1 429.9 429.8 429.6 429.4 429.4
Havana 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
Beardstown 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0
:Mackinaw River
Congerville 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
:Spoon River
London Mills 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Seville 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6
:Sangamon River
Monticello 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.2
Riverton 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2
Petersburg 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4
:Salt Creek
Greenview 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
:Sangamon River
Oakford 456.2 456.2 456.0 455.8 455.7 455.6 455.6
Chandlerville 443.5 443.5 443.3 443.0 442.9 442.8 442.8
:Embarras River
Lawrenceville 17.8 17.4 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.4 16.3
Ste. Marie 2.3 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7
:Little Wabash River
Clay City 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2
:Vermilion River
Danville 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/ilx for more weather and water
information.
$$