006
FXUS63 KILX 152016
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
316 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered sprinkles and showers continue through the
  afternoon into the early evening. Mostly north of the I-72
  corridor.

- Above normal temperatures continue tomorrow. Highs will range
  from the mid-70s to the low 80s.

- Showers and thunderstorm chances return starting Friday late
  afternoon with more substantial chances Saturday. Isolated
  strong to severe storms with damaging winds, hail, and heavy
  rainfall are possible Saturday afternoon into the evening,
  particularly south and west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A broad ridge across the central CONUS and a deep trough to the west
dominate current satellite imagery. Isentropic ascent across the MO
River Valley tapped into the antecedent saturated air bringing some
sprinkles to light showers to central IL this morning. Radar still
shows some elevated precipitation; however, temperatures have warmed
several degrees since this morning producing a dry low layer
underneath a more saturated higher layer. Much of these returns will
not likely reach the ground as virga evaporates as is approaches the
surface. Some more aggressive cells might see precipitation reach
the ground as light sprinkles to showers through the afternoon and
evening hours.

Northerly surface winds complimented by a NW oriented 500mb jet
ushers in cooler air into northern IL. This creates a dichotomy of
high temperatures across the region with upper 60s to low 70s in the
north and near 80 in the south. The high pressure slowly transits to
the east on Thursday nudging the warmer air northward lifting highs
across the area into the 70s and 80s. This also slightly opens up
southerly flow allowing more warm air and moisture to flow into the
region. A 500mb shortwave trough is progged to move through central
IL Friday afternoon and evening. This upper level CVA looks to
provide just enough lift to entice some showers and isolated
thunderstorms Friday evening. East central IL has the highest
probabilities of precipitation Friday evening with the primary
uncertainties being some lower level divergence and a general lack of
instability.

Precipitation chances increase significantly on Saturday as the
longwave trough currently across the western CONUS moves eastward.
Several embedded shortwaves and CVA along a cold frontal boundary
bring opportunities for showers and thunderstorms starting Saturday
morning across west central IL. Showers and storms move with the
cold front through the day across the region. Swift southwesterly
flow at all level brings in warm air, moisture, and instability
opening up the possibility for strong to severe storms Saturday
afternoon. The more favorable environment looks to stay in the SW
portions of the area more so into eastern and SE MO, but
chances could extend into central IL. CAPE values around
1000-1500 J/kg and 0-3km shear above 30-35 knots combined with
steep lapse rates paint a favorable picture for isolated strong
to severe storms. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall
look to be the primary hazards. The modeled environment looks
to be quite variable with many models seemingly linking the
convective environment more towards diurnal processes rather
than frontal dynamics which adds uncertainty as the strength of
these storms could be greatly influenced by when they
form/arrive. Near term high resolution guidance will be able to
narrow these uncertainties as they come into range.

Behind the front a jet streak rounds the base of the trough with
swift flow mixing its way down toward the surface. Gusty post
frontal winds around 20-30 mph guide in cooler temperatures which
will be much closer to seasonal normals. Long range guidance
continues to maintain the active pattern with multiple deep troughs
and embedded shortwaves traversing the area. These oscillations look
to bring some opportunities for rain while at the same time causing
temperatures to continue to fluctuate high and low of seasonal
norms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Lower end VFR conditions continue through much of the day BKN to
OVC sky coverage is expected with some light virga to showers
possible across primarily the western portion of the forecast
area. Winds remain light and variable through the daytime hours
before accelerating and becoming more easterly after sunset.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO ILX
AVIATION...WFO ILX