858
FXUS63 KILX 110206
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
906 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is expected over portions of west-central IL
  overnight into Saturday morning, mainly in areas that received
  rain early Friday morning.

- Dry conditions are expected over the upcoming week with drought
  conditions continuing.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Updates this evening have been made to track more closely the
cloud cover associated with an approaching cold front, with a band
of clouds preceding the front, eventually stalling out over
central and southeast IL, and gradually dissipating and shifting
southward in the morning. Scattered sprinkles have also been
trimmed out of the evening forecast as higher ceilings and lower
dewpoints in the eastern portion of the state are coinciding with
dissipation of echoes on radar. Fog still appears to be likely in
areas west of the Illinois River where rain fell early this
morning as skies clear and winds remain light near the frontal
boundary. Latest model guidance seems to latch onto these areas
for fog development, so have not made modifications to afternoon
forecast package with respect to fog. Lows in the lower 50s most
areas look on track, while Galesburg area in the mid 40s also
looks good where more clearing takes place.

37

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A cold front analyzed on the 19z/2pm surface map extending from
Wisconsin into eastern Iowa will drop slowly southeastward this
evening...spreading a band of low clouds into the area. While the
boundary layer will remain dry, enough synoptic lift will be
generated along the boundary to support a few sprinkles. Several
CAMs including the HRRR suggest this as well...so have added
sprinkles to the forecast for most locations north of the I-70
corridor this evening into the first part of the overnight hours.
NAM RH profiles/soundings indicate decreasing moisture across the
western KILX CWA overnight. Thanks to clearing skies and light
winds, it appears fog will develop where rainfall occurred earlier
today. CAMs are in excellent agreement that the fog will primarily
be confined to locations west of the Illinois River...and may
become locally dense further west along/west of the Mississippi
River where rain was heaviest. Overnight lows will range from the
middle to upper 40s in the Illinois River Valley to the lower 50s
elsewhere. After some lingering cloud cover in the morning, skies
will become mostly sunny across the board by Saturday afternoon
with highs topping out in the lower to middle 70s.

Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

The extended forecast will be dominated by quiet and dry conditions.
Temperatures will warm well into the 70s to around 80 degrees
both Sunday and Monday before another weak cold front passes and
brings slightly cooler readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s by
Wednesday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A cold front slowly moving across the area tonight will bring
overcast cigs, potentially MVFR at times through 03Z-05Z,
dissipating late tonight. Winds SW-W up to 8 kts initially,
becoming NE 4-8 kts by 08Z-12Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$