758
FXUS63 KILX 301536
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1036 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures cool into the 70s for highs through Monday. Highs
warm back into the upper 80s starting Tuesday ahead of another cold
front passage, which will drop temperatures slightly into the low
80s for the remainder of the week.

- The next significant chance for showers and thunderstorms comes
late Tuesday night (40-60% chance) and again Thursday (60-80%
chance).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The forecast remains largely on track this morning, although
temperatures were overachieving a bit from the forecast, despite
some cu near and east of I-57. Thinking is this is due to the dry
airmass which is more subject to rapid radiational warming than
normal for this time of year. A blend of the 12z HRRR and NBM
seemed to handle this as well as anything, so temps/dewpoints
were adjusted through tonight that way.

Bumgardner

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A high pressure system has built over the Dakotas and will travel
eastward to over the Great Lakes by late Monday. This will keep us
dry and below normal for temperatures today and tomorrow. Late
Tuesday another frontal system will make its way through the
Midwest, bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to
the CWA (40-60% chance). Timing of this system has been slowing in
recent trends. Multiple waves look to follow for the remainder of
the week, keeping POPs in the area through Friday or Saturday.

Today, highs will be below normal for this time of year, with
temperatures ranging in the 70s. Weather will be dry, sunny, with
low humidity. Lows overnight will drop down into the low 50s.
Overall, quite pleasant for the last day in June.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be the hottest days of the week as the
initial cold front propagates through the CWA. Temperatures will
get up into the upper 80s to low 90s, with dewpoints getting into
the 70s. Storms are possible along and ahead of the front where
the strong moisture and instability exist. QPF amounts with this
system are anywhere from a trace to 0.5 inches.

The 4th of July (Thursday) has a 60-80% chance of scattered showers
and thunderstorms pretty much CWA wide. QPF is showing near an inch
for many locations from the rain on Thursday. More exact details of
timing and areas of interest will clear up as we move closer to the
holiday this week. It looks like there are decent chances at this
time through the entire holiday into the nighttime hours. This is
Day 5 in the forecast, so there is wiggle room for some adjustments
to the forecast between now and then.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

High pressure builds over the region today, resulting in VFR
conditions through the entire TAF period. NNE winds vary from 5-10
knots through the next 24 hours.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$