792
FXUS63 KILX 191317
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
817 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this morning will be capable of large
  hail and damaging wind gusts. There is a level 2 of 5 (slight)
  risk for severe weather until 7am. Then, a marginal risk (level
  1 of 5) lingers near and south of the I-70 corridor today.

- Some training thunderstorms this morning into the afternoon may
  result in localized flooding, with the highest risk near and
  south of roughly I-70.

- On Sunday, there is slight risk for severe weather for the
  southwest portion of the CWA and a marginal risk as far east as
  the I-57 corridor. There is an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk
  for severe weather just to the west of Schuyler and Scott
  counties.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

At 815am, regional mosaic radar revealed multiple waves of
convection rippling along a quasistationary frontal boundary draped
from the Ozarks to the Upper Ohio Valley. While most of the precip
across the ILX CWA is regular rain showers, a slightly stronger
shortwave has resulted in deeper convection characterized by cloud
top temps as low as -75 degC over southwest MO and northwest AR. As
this disturbance approaches areas south of the I-70 corridor toward
lunchtime today, increased low level shear and convergence in the
vicinity of the outflow left by this early morning`s storms will
serve as a catalyst for renewed development of potentially severe
storms capable of damaging hail and wind gusts.

Bumgardner

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Well the cap never broke this past evening. However, the storms from
southwest of the CWA have finally arrived this morning. A slight
risk for severe weather still exists for central and southeastern IL
through 12z, so a few of these storms could be strong-to-severe.
Primarily watching out for damaging winds and 1 inch hail. The
passing cold front will stall out over central IL today. We are
still expecting heavy showers and potentially strong storms into the
morning. Showers, heavy at times, will continue into the afternoon
for areas near and south of I-72. CAMs show a break in the rain from
00z to 10z Sunday. Then as the boundary lifts back north as a warm
front, more rain and thunderstorms enter the forecast area.

The warm front is connected to a secondary low pressure system that
will lift northeastward Sunday. More severe weather is forecast for
much of the day, Sunday. There looks to be a morning round
associated with the warm front, and then an evening round with the
cold front passage. Sunday`s severe threat looks to be a classic
high shear / low CAPE day. Highest shear will be located closest to
the triple point region, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE ahead of
the front. SPC has a slight risk for the southwest portion of the
CWA and a marginal risk as far east as the I-57 corridor. There
is an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe weather just to
the west of Schuyler and Scott counties.

The rainfall from this morning to Monday morning from the multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to be from 1-2
inches. The HREF has a 70% chance of more than 1.5 inches of rain
along the I-70 corridor through Sunday evening. Creeks and streams
may become stressed with the additional rainfall, especially if they
are already quite high from the previous weeks.

Beyond Monday morning, a high pressure settles in for Monday and
Tuesday, bringing calmer weather. Then several more rounds of rain
are possible through the rest of the work week as multiple waves
pass overhead. The next week will be above normal temperature-wise,
with highs in the 70s to near 80s and lows in the 50s to 60s.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Showers continue this morning. SPI and DEC can see SHRA or VCSH
for much of the day. The other sites can expect to see a period of
dry weather today before the next round enters the area by the end
of the period. Winds will be light but will shift from NW to NE by
this evening. MVFR ceilings will be common today. DEC/SPI are
forecast to stay locked into the MVFR ceilings, but CMI/PIA/BMI
will periodically pop up into the VFR category. In heavy showers,
the ceiling could briefly drop into IFR territory.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$