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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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339 FXUS63 KILX 010759 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 259 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs in the upper 70s for today. Temperatures warm back into the upper 80s to low 90s starting Tuesday ahead of another cold front passage, which will drop temperatures slightly into the mid-to-low 80s for the remainder of the week. - Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning bring a chance for strong to severe storms. POPs of 50-75% starting 00z Wednesday. The SPC severe outlook shows a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for our western counties. - Independence Day (Thursday) has a wide spread 60-80% chance for precipitation all day. This could put a damper on some celebrations that day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The high pressure in place will linger for today. Keeping temperatures and dewpoints in a comfortable range. Highs today getting up into the upper 70s and dewpoints in the 50s. After today, the high will move off to the east. There is a low pressure system located in the Upper Plains that will also move off to the east, bringing some frontal passages to central Illinois starting Tuesday evening. The warm front will be first to pass through increasing the day time temperatures into the mid to low 80s and bringing more moist air (higher dewpoints). The cold front passage will follow the warm front. Timing of the front looks to be overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This front could pose a wind and hail threat to areas to the west of I- 55. Height falls are expected to precede the frontal passage, along with increasing mid-level flow (50-60kt winds at 500 mb). Recent trends off the Hi-Res models show it entering the western CWA but quickly fading in strength as it works its way toward I-55. POPs stay in the forecast through Friday. Independence Day is this week on Thursday and, unfortunately, there are 60-80% chance POPs in the forecast through the entirety of the holiday. Impacts could cause delays or postponements of festivities. Severity of these storms are unknown currently, same for any timing ideas. QPF for the showers and thunderstorms from 00z Wednesday to 12z Friday have areas NW of the Illinois River and along/south of I-70 receiving 2+ inches. The region between the Illinois River and I-70 could see 1-1.5 inches. However, the 12z LREF shows only a 25% chance of >2 inches and a 30-60% chance of >1 inch for this time period. WPC has us in a slight risk in their Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the next couple days. Copple && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 High pressure drifting eastward through the Great Lakes Region will bring mostly clear skies tonight, with gradually increasing high and mid clouds Monday afternoon and evening. VFR conditions will continue through 06Z Tuesday. Winds E-NE 5-10 kts overnight shifting to SE and increasing to 8-12 kts by 18Z. 37 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$