995
FXUS63 KILX 040520
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1220 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy skies from smoke aloft will continue another day or two,
  but concentrations near the ground should continue to decrease.

- Humidity will increase Monday to become more typical of
  summertime. Along with increased humidity, a warming trend will
  begin, bringing highs in the lower 80s Monday and Tuesday, mid
  80s Wednesday, and upper 80s by late in the week.

- Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening, showers and
  thunderstorms look to develop over much of the area Monday and
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to weaken and move
off to the east into early this upcoming work week, while a weak
upper level trough over the central Plains today and the departing
high allow a generally southeasterly flow to bring increased
moisture into central IL. HREF ensemble system indicates this
moisture should result in 750-1500 J/kg SBCAPE by Monday afternoon.
Coincident with this instability, scattered shower/thunderstorm
activity develops by afternoon as a general theme in high-res
ensembles. Shear is very low in the vicinity of the weak upper level
trough drifting over the area through Tuesday, so the threat for
severe thunderstorms is low. Another round of mainly afternoon and
evening scattered showers and thunderstorms looks on track for
Tuesday. Highs should trend upward into the lower 80s for Monday and
Tuesday.

By midweek, ridging building into the central US behind the early
week trough should keep conditions dry late in the week and into the
weekend. The warming trend will continue, resulting in upper 80s
highs by Thursday and Friday.

37

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will continue to
provide light east to northeast flow across central Illinois
overnight, with winds veering to east to southeast during the day
Monday. Some late afternoon/evening isolated to scattered storms
are possible, favoring the eastern most terminals. Outside of
precip, VFR will prevail through the period.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$