310
FXUS63 KILX 040612
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
112 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to slightly above average temperatures along with dry
  conditions will dominate central Illinois through the rest of
  the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The latest surface analysis has a high over Michigan and frontal
boundary stationary extending southwest from the mid Atlantic
through the Southeast to Texas. An upper level wave will pass
through the Dakotas today and through MN/WI/MI tonight. The southern
extent of precipitation with this trough will be as far south as
perhaps the IL/WI border overnight tonight. There will be a cold
front associated with this upper feature, but lagging behind a bit.
This will allow highs to rise a bit more on Sunday (70s) than today
(70-75) in most areas, except perhaps the northwest. Expect
highs to be a bit cooler on Monday, back to around 70 or low
70s. The coolest night of the week will be Monday night as cool
high pressure will dominate...allowing lows to dip into the
lower 40s across east- central IL. A few upper 30s readings
wouldn`t be out of the question either.

With the jet stream to the north extending from the southern prairie
provinces through the Great Lakes, weather system tracks will remain
to the north of IL through much of the week. The next system to
potentially affect the area looks to be on Thursday night. But then,
it`s a weak wave and could perhaps bring some showers to northern
IL. Right now, the chance this wave affects central Illinois is
under 10%, so it won`t be included in the PoPs forecast right now.

Temperatures look to warm above average for the latter part of the
week with the jet stream staying north. Currently expecting highs
around 80 for Wed-Fri, with perhaps mid 80s by Saturday. The biggest
question in the forecast is at day 7-8 when models diverge a bit.
There is the potential for an upper trough to deepen over the
western US while a weak TX upper low ejects northeastward ahead of
the trough. This is the next big chance for rain over IL...Sunday
night into Monday. While a pattern shift is possible late in the
forecast period, it may hold off to the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A dry cold front will pass through central Illinois early
Sunday. Light and variable winds overnight will set up out of
the NW around 10-12 kt behind the front Sunday with a few
sporadic gusts to around 20 kt possible. Winds will ease around
or after sunset Sunday evening. VFR conditions will prevail
through the period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Knutsvig
DISCUSSION...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss