Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
773 FXUS63 KILX 021032 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 532 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Lingering morning showers south of I-70 will taper off by midday as cooler, drier air filters into the region behind a cold front. * A benign fall pattern brings dry conditions, light winds, and pleasant temperatures through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) As of early this morning, a cold front has pushed southeastward across central Illinois, currently positioned along the Ohio River Valley and extending southwestward into the mid- Mississippi Valley. Light post-frontal rain continues to linger across portions of southeast Illinois within the anafrontal rain band. Meanwhile, a strong 1025 mb surface high centered over the Upper Midwest is steadily building into the region, driving a notably cooler and drier air mass southwards. Dew points in the 60s yesterday will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s today. Expect lingering precipitation south of I-70 to end by around midday as dry air advection continues. High temperatures today will top out in the mid 60s to near 70 under gradually clearing skies. Quiet weather conditions will persist through Friday night and Saturday as the surface high drifts east toward New England while maintaining a ridge axis across central Illinois. This setup will yield light winds, seasonable daytime highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and cool overnight lows in the 40s. .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Thursday) An upper-level shortwave trough traversing the Canadian Prairies will track a weak surface low well to our north on Sunday. Model guidance remains in good agreement keeping any precipitation well north of the local forecast area, generally along and north of the Illinois/Wisconsin state line. Warm air advection ahead of this system will bring a brief uptick in temperatures on Sunday, boosting afternoon highs into the mid- to-upper 70s. In the wake of the low, another expansive surface high overspreads the Midwest by early Monday before settling along the Mid-Atlantic coast by midweek. Highs Monday and Tuesday will remain near to slightly below normal in the upper 60s and lower 70s with lows consistently in the 40s. By Wednesday and Thursday, return southwesterly flow around the backside of the departing ridge will initiate a more sustained warming trend across the region. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the upper 70s to low 80s through the latter half of next week with persistent dry conditions expected. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 A cold front has pushed southeast of Illinois early this morning, leaving a north/northeast breeze in its wake. Some gusts of 18-20 kts will be possible from mid morning through the afternoon. Low ceilings have recently scattered out at PIA and will gradually scatter out from the northwest through the morning, with VFR conditions prevailing from around mid to late morning through the remainder of the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Deubelbeiss DISCUSSION...Deubelbeiss AVIATION...Deubelbeiss