649
FXUS63 KILX 032311
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
611 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions will prevail through Friday (July 4).
  There is a less than 20% chance of a stray shower this evening.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected Friday (July 4) and
  Saturday, with highs in the low 90s and heat indices of 95 to
  100 degrees.

- Storm chances return Saturday night into Sunday (30-50% chance)
  as a cold front moves through. Locally heavy rainfall and a few
  strong wind gusts are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Today has been nice. The holiday weekend has arrived and everyone
has outdoor plans. The weather is an important factor into the
weekend, so lets take a look, shall we. Most of central and
southeastern IL should remain dry through Saturday evening. However,
there is less than a 20% chance of isolated showers and
thunderstorms, mainly north of I-74 this evening. There is a
boundary with slight convergence just to the north of the CWA that
could potentially send down rain but there just might be just enough
CIN to stop any substantial development this far south. Also, the
air is quite dry, with dewpoint depressions of around 20 degrees. It
is likely that any showers that move in won`t reach the ground,
presenting as virga.

Tomorrow, get your grills fired up and water balloons ready. No rain
is in the forecast as a high pressure system continues to dominate
the weather pattern. Temperatures will warm up into the low to mid
90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s. Winds will be out of the
south and generally light (5-10 mph).

Saturday remains dry until later in the evening as a cold front
approaches from the west, bringing showers and thunderstorms into
the area. The cold front should be out of the area by late Monday.
The storms with this front may be limited in strength with weak wind
shear in place. However, heavy rain may be common and a localized
flash flooding risk could be in place. PWATs are still quite high
(>2 inches). We would need 1.5" of rain in an hour or 3-4 inches in
6 hours to have any significant flooding problems.

Beyond the cold frontal passage, several more disturbances look to
pass through next week, which would keep the wetter pattern in
place. Temperatures will be more seasonable behind the cold front,
with heat indices hanging around the low 90s.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Southwest winds around 4-7 kt will become light and variable
tonight, returning from the south-southwest around 6-8 kt late
tomorrow (Thursday) morning when diurnal cu around FL050 resurface.
Conditions should remain VFR throughout the forecast period.

Bumgardner

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$