137
FXUS63 KILX 261958
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
258 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight (20%) chance for patchy frost in rural areas
  east of a roughly northeast of a Lacon to Bloomington to Paris
  line late tonight. This could damage newly emerged tender
  vegetation if it is left uncovered.

- Gusty southerly winds may make for difficult travel for high
  profile vehicles Monday afternoon and evening. 30-35 mph wind
  gusts will be most common north of I-70, but there is a 30-60%
  for a sporadic gust or two to surpass 35 mph from I-55 northwest.

- There is a 15% chance for severe weather Monday night northwest
  of a Litchfield to Hoopeston line, and east of the IL River on
  Tuesday. This corresponds to a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk. There
  is an enhanced risk of severe storms Monday night from Macomb to
  Galesburg to Princeton northwest (level 3 of 5 severe risk).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Mid afternoon surface map shows 1026-1028 mb high pressure over
Lake Superior and ridging southward across central IL and helped
clear the cumulus clouds over much of central IL. These clouds
where now over sw IL from I-64 south and just a few cumulus clouds
in sw CWA. Temps were in the upper 50s/lower 60s over central/se
IL with NNE to NE winds gusting 17-25 mph in central and eastern
IL.

High pressure to settle over Michigan overnight into Sunday
morning and ridge down over the northern Ohio river valley.
Meanwhile a complex of showers and thunderstorms over se KS into
central/eastern OK and north central Texas near Red River valley)
to spread convection chances eastward over MO during tonight and
into sw IL by dawn Sunday morning. This to spread mid/high clouds
into central and sw IL during tonight with the high clouds thinner
in NE CWA. We have lows in the upper 30s ne CWA where patchy frost
possible late tonight and mid 40s sw CWA and from highway 50 south
where thicker clouds arrive sooner. Don`t think frost will be too
widespread over ne CWA due to high clouds moving in overnight. We
continued slight chance of showers far SW CWA on Sunday while
higher chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
closer to the MO border. Temps warm a bit more on Sunday with mid
to upper 60s and near 70F from I-74 north where more sunshine
possible. SE winds 10-15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph on
Sunday. Areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms to weaken over
the mid MS river valley late Sunday afternoon/early Sun evening.
Then slight chances of convection nw CWA overnight Sunday night,
mainly late. Lows Sunday night in the low to mid 50s.

Low pressure to emerge over central SD late Sunday night and
deepen as it lifts northeast to the upper MS river valley in
eastern MN by sunset Monday and lift ne of Lake Superior during
overnight Mon night. We should mostly be capped on Monday with
convection chances nw of Knox and Stark county. Breezy south
winds gusting 30-35 mph north of I-70 with warm highs in the low
to mid 80s and a bit shy of record highs in the upper 80s to near
90F. Convection chances to increase from nw to se during Monday
night, mainly late Mon evening and overnight Mon night. SPC Day3
update has slight chance of severe storms as far se as a
Taylorville to Hoopeston line and enhanced risk nw of a Macomb to
Princeton line with nw Knox county in enhanced risk. Moderate risk
late Monday afternoon and Monday night is over parts of IA/WI.

Cold front to push se into IL river valley late Tue morning and
into se IL during Tue evening, and will likely bring a band of
showers and thunderstorms thru CWA. SPC Day4 outlook has 15% risk
of severe storms southeast of the IL river. Mild lows Mon night in
the mid to upper 60s. Highs Tue in the mid 70s nw of the IL river
and upper 70s/lower 80s east of the IL river.

Stayed close to NBM pops for Wed through Friday which keeps pops
from 30-40% northern CWA on Wed and 60-70% in southeast IL.
Higher pops shift northward Wed night and Thu with front lifting
back up and may need to monitor risk of severe storms again
especially se CWA. Convection chances diminish overnight Thu night
and Fri as storm system pulls away.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

VFR conditions generally expected over the central IL airports
through 18Z/1 pm Sunday. DEC may briefly see broken 3k ft clouds
til 19Z, otherwise few to scattered cumulus clouds this afternoon
with bases of 3-4k ft as drier air continues working in on NNE
winds 10-13k ts gusting 15-19 kts. 1029 mb high pressure over
western Lake Superior and ridging southward into the mid MS river
valley to shift eastward toward the eastern WI and Lake MI border
and into eastern IL by evening and be over lower MI and northern
Ohio river valley Sunday morning. High clouds to spread into
central IL during this evening with broken ceilings 15-25k ft late
evening/overnight especially sw of I-74. Showers and lower
ceilings move into sw IL Sunday morning and should stay sw of SPI.
Winds veer east to NE less than 10 kts tonight and veer SE at
10-14 kts by 15Z/10 am Sunday.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$