222
FXUS61 KILN 100011
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
711 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking through the region will bring rain
tonight and continue through Sunday. The area dries out for the
first part of the work week as a large area of high pressure
builds across the Great Lakes. The next threat for rain arrives
Wednesday with the approach of a frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Mid level ridge axis shifts off to the east as low pressure
over the Central Plains lifts northeast into the Upper MS Valley
by morning. Flow backs with moisture increasing ahead of a warm
front that pivots north thru the region late tonight. The
airmass is initially dry and although a few showers are possible
from a mid deck later this evening - main focus of rain will
hold off until after midnight when more favorable isentropic
lift develops.

Expect rain to become widespread late as pcpn expands northeast
across the entire FA. Forecast soundings show some very
marginal elevated instability across the far southwest late - so
can not rule out an embedded thunderstorm. Rainfall by morning
to range from 0.50 to 0.75 southwest to .1 to .2 northeast by
sunrise Sunday.

Mild temperatures with lows from the mid/upper 40s northeast to
the lower 50s southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level low over the Upper MS Valley to open up/weaken as it
tracks across the Great Lakes Sunday/Sunday night. The region
looks to be a warm sector with a 45-50 KT southerly low level
jet offering favorable moisture transport Sunday morning.
Widespread rain in the morning to decrease in coverage some as
the low level jet pivots east. Additional showers and perhaps
embedded thunder will continue until an associated surface cold
front pushes east across the area late in the day thru Sunday
evening. Highs to generally range from 60 to 65.

The gradient increases with south winds of 15 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph possible at times. Storm total rainfall thru
Sunday evening to range from 0.5 inches northwest to 1 to 1.5
inches generally along and southeast of I-71.

Rain to end Sunday evening as the front pushes off to the east
and clouds decrease. Lows to range from the lower 40s to the
upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry conditions are generally expected Monday through the
daytime hours on Wednesday. There is a weak boundary that moves
through Monday night, however moisture is limited and therefore
just have an increase in clouds as it moves through and then on
Tuesday with CAA as well.

Southerly flow will allow temperatures to warm from the 30s at
the start of the day to the 50s and 60s on Wednesday. In some
areas temperatures will rise after dark Wednesday evening as
warm air continues to move into the region in advance of the
cold front. The cold front will work through late Wednesday
night into Thursday. Rain will start to move into the region
after dark Wednesday evening and then residual shower activity
will be around for Thursday with the upper level disturbance.

Dry conditions will work back into the area for Thursday night.
There is more uncertainty towards the end of the long term with
timing of a system and also with temperatures. Went closer to
the blend for this time period due to some of the uncertainties
and range of solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the overnight period, a decent mid level low pressure
system will move east from the central Plains to the upper/mid
Mississippi River Valley. As it does, moisture will be
transported north and northeast with an associated warm front.
Broad scale warm, moist ascent will allow showers to increase in
coverage from the southwest. There could be a rumble of
thunder. Precipitation will allow ceilings and visibilities to
lower into the MVFR category with some pockets of IFR ceilings
developing north of the Ohio River toward 12Z. In addition, the
surface pressure gradient will increase as winds veer from the
east to the south. This will increase sustained winds into the
10 to 15 knots with gusts increasing into the 20 to 25 knot
range by 12Z.

On Sunday, the mid level low will continue to move east into
the western Great Lakes. The combination of an upper level jet
speed max and a decent low level jet will bring widespread
showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, for a good part of the
day. Ceilings will lower into the IFR category with some pockets
of LIFR possible. Visibilities will generally be in the MVFR
category with moderate to locally heavy rain showers, with some
pockets of IFR possible. It will continue to be breezy with
south winds veering to the southwest between 12 and 18 knots
with gusts in the 18 to 28 knot range. By late in the day, an
associated surface trailing cold front will be entering the area
near 00Z. Main precipitation shield will be progressing east
ahead of the frontal boundary. Winds will shift to the west and
gustiness will diminish some with frontal passage Sunday night
as showers come to an end.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings to linger into Sunday night. MVFR
conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman