Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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004 FXUS61 KILN 300816 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 416 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low level moisture will allow for foggy conditions this morning. Scattered shower activity will be present today associated with the low pressure system. As this feature moves off to the east tonight, additional fog is expected to develop. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... A combination of drizzle and isolated shower activity is currently around the region. In addition, fog has developed in spots, especially south of the shower activity. Have a special weather statement out for some of the area locations near and south of the Ohio River where observations are a quarter to a half mile and webcams also indicate patchy dense fog. At this time, it does appear patchy and not widespread and therefore held off on a dense fog advisory. Cloud cover will be in place much of the day. Shower activity will increase and become scattered this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Cannot rule out an isolated rumble of thunder given some limited instability, however confidence was not high enough to include at this time. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Low level moisture will remain in place tonight. Shower activity will decrease through the evening and into the overnight hours. Where there are any breaks in the clouds in the evening this will just lead to additional stratus and fog formation. There has been a signal for days now for fog tonight. Have patchy dense fog to areas of dense fog in the forecast and hazardous weather outlook. For the day on Tuesday, cannot rule out some precipitation chances across the lower Scioto valley during the morning and into the afternoon hours. The main chances for precipitation however will be associated with a quick moving upper level disturbance. This feature will allow for showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms as it moves through. Winds will also pick up with this feature as well into the evening hours. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cold front will be moving through the region at the start of the period. There will be scattered showers and perhaps some thunder along the front. Once this clears, high pressure will build in and persist through Thursday night. A warming trend will occur with readings getting above normal by Thursday. A weak cold front will pass through on Friday. Forcing and moisture availability look limited, thus precipitation chances are low with this system. Another high will build in on Saturday. There is increasing spread in guidance solutions heading into Sunday. The ECMWF and CMC ensemble systems favor a stronger short wave tracking through the Great Lakes while the GFS ensemble is much weaker. The former would be sufficient to push another cold front through the area. And with a bit better upper support a higher chance of showers. Temperatures over the weekend will be slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Complex aviation forecast. Stratus, fog, and drizzle overnight will reduce visibilities and cigs. There will be some improvement during the day, however cigs are still expected to be reduced a large majority of the day. In addition scattered showers will be present during the day. Any breaks in the clouds late in the day or early in the overnight hours Monday night will just help in the subsequent formation of additional fog and stratus. Expect conditions to deteriorate Monday night with reduced cigs and vsbys. OUTLOOK....Patchy to areas of fog and low stratus, will be possible tonight into Tuesday morning. Some fog may be dense. IFR or lower conditions will be possible Tuesday morning. Some thunderstorms and gusty winds will be possible late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...