667
FXUS61 KILN 061500
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1100 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Waves of low pressure rippling northeast from the Tennessee Valley
to the mid Appalachians will keep showery precipitation in the
forecast for today. Drier conditions arrive briefly tonight as a weak
surface ridge builds into the Ohio Valley. A deep mid level trough
and associated cold front will quickly follow on the heels of the
exiting high Monday into Monday night, bringing a chance of
precipitation. Drier weather and high pressure will return to the
region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Much below normal temperatures are
forecast with this pattern shift.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Trimmed the northern portion of the Flood Watch some more. While
there may be additional light rainfall amounts in this area, the
threat for heavy rainfall has ended. Residual flooding will continue
to be covered by shorter fused flood Advisories/Flood Warnings. Will
keep the Flood Watch up further south, where some relatively higher
rainfall could occur later today although eventually these areas
likely can be trimmed from the Flood Watch as well, with
Advisories/Warnings addressing ongoing flooding.

Cloudy skies with light rain/drizzle will be common into early
afternoon. Later in the afternoon, another wave may enhance rainfall
especially in the southern/southeast portion of the CWA. Additional
rainfall amounts up to one quarter inch will be possible.

Cold advection is also expected today, and it`s possible that the
northern fringe of precip into central Ohio could feature some wet
snowflakes mixing in especially toward evening.

Temperatures will mainly range from the upper 30s north to middle
40s south today, with northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The final wave of low pressure will move off to the northeast this
evening. Lingering pcpn will eventually exit to the east, allowing a
weak surface ridge to build in from the northwest. Clearing skies
will occur from northwest to southeast. Sustained winds and gusts
will subside. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 30s.

On Monday, the weak ridge will quickly exit, allowing a decent mid
level trough to dig southeast into the Great Lakes, southeast Canada,
and New England. This trough will be associated with a cold front.
Winds will pick up again ahead and behind the front (gusts between 20
and 30 mph). Moisture is not overall deep or rich, but enough
dynamical lift with the mid level trough and front will bring a
chance of pcpn. Strong cold air advection will occur behind the front
such that a few wet snowflakes may mix in across the north and
northeast before pcpn comes to an end Monday night. Highs will range
from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Brisk northwest winds behind the departing cold front will bring
cold temperatures for Monday night. As skies clear, lows will drop
into the lower to mid 20s.

On Tuesday, under a northwest flow pattern aloft, surface high
pressure will build in from the northwest. Skies will be partly
cloudy to mostly sunny. Despite the sunshine, it will be cold for
early April with highs remaining in the 40s.

The high will move east through the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Mostly clear skies Tuesday night will give way to
increasing clouds on Wednesday ahead of the next weather system. Some
pcpn will be possible across the west late as warm, moist ascent
occurs. After lows in the mid and upper 20s, highs will warm into the
upper 40s north to the mid 50s south.

For the period Wednesday night into Thursday night, a digging mid
level trough and associated surface low and cold front will bring
unsettled weather back to the area. PoPs will increase on Thursday
with showers and a few thunderstorms forecast.

Mid level troughiness may linger into the first part of the weekend
with some operational models depicting the closing of a mid level
circulation. This solution would keep conditions a little unsettled
into the first part of the weekend. Confidence where mid level
circulations close off and where/how fast they propagate is usually
low at longer timeframe. We will continue to monitor and update as we
get closer to the end of the week. Otherwise, it will be a little
cooler with near to below normal temperatures Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For today and into this evening. a couple waves of low pressure will
ripple northeast from the Tennessee Valley to the middle
Appalachians. This will continue the threat for shower activity, with
the best coverage near and south of the Ohio River. Enough cold air
could allow for a few snowflakes to mix in across the north. North to
northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue to gust between 20
and 25 knots. Some lower level drier air will actually allow ceilings
to rise into the VFR/MVFR category for most locations north of the
Ohio River. Visibilities in showers will be VFR/MVFR.

For tonight, skies will try to clear from northwest to southeast as
a weak ridge of high pressure builds in. A few showers, perhaps mixed
with a few snowflakes, will come to an end during the evening.
Ceilings will generally vary between VFR and MVFR. Winds will
diminish as well as the gustiness.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Monday afternoon into Monday
evening. MVFR/IFR conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for OHZ063>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Hickman