945
FXUS61 KILN 052350
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
750 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A fairly consistent pattern is in store throughout the remainder of
the working week. Daily isolated summertime thunderstorms can be
expected to pop up each afternoon with relatively quiet conditions
expected during the overnights. Temperatures continue to be near
normal for the next few days, before we experience a subtle uptick in
warmth.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Updated the near term forecast this evening for increasing fog
coverage overnight. Relatively widespread showers and storms across
southern Ohio and northern Kentucky have brought about a more
coherent signal for fog in the latest guidance. Best chance of dense
fog remains in the usual river valleys, but can`t rule out areas of
fog outside these valleys as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday`s forecast is very similar to Tuesday`s with the 1030
surface high continuing to progress east out of Quebec toward the
Atlantic/ New England region. ILN remains situated on the
southwestern side of this feature, with the weak surface trough
continuing its push northeast through the Ohio Valley.

Again, once surface based instability builds in, weak lift should
spark renewed scattered shower/thunderstorm development during the
afternoon hours. Large scale flow remains very weak (to nearly non-
existent), so slow movers are anticipated. Daytime high temperatures
rise into the low/mid 80s. Column moisture remains near normal,
perhaps slightly above normal in spots, so our RHs remain relatively
comfortable for this time of year.

Once again, afternoon and evening convection will taper off with the
loss of diurnal heating and we should quiet down during the overnight
into Thursday with lows falling to the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday through Sunday, the region is split between areas of rich
moisture to the southeast and to the northwest. The displaced
moisture and the lack of strong forcing mechanisms likely keeps the
region mostly dry, however, enough heat and low level moisture will
be around to allow for a few scattered downpours and thunderstorms
each day. A ridge builds over the area, but it is not very deep,
limiting the potential for a sweltering heat wave. Instead, expect
temperatures a few degrees above normal, generally in the mid to
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Early next week, a trough attempts to dig into the Midwest and upper
Great Lakes. This would present the potential for better moisture
advection into the Ohio Valley, increasing the potential for more
widespread thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Guidance remains consistent for rapidly decreasing the coverage of
showers to start off the TAF period this evening. While the latest
HRRR runs have a hint of isolated convection late in the overnight
(06-09Z), have opted to exclude this from the forecast due to
uncertainty/limited signal across the entire model suite.

Have increased fog a bit for CVG/LUK/ILN due to rain-cooled moist air
where rainfall occurred this evening. This will be somewhat
dependent on how quickly remnant debris clouds clear out tonight.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...