022
FXUS61 KILN 121340
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
940 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front near the Ohio River will lift northward during the
daytime hours today. This will result in slightly higher relative
humidity percentages compared to yesterday, though winds will still
gust to 25 MPH.

A weak weather disturbance will cross the region on Thursday,
resulting in a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. A much
stronger system will impact the region this weekend, bringing gusty
winds, heavy rain, and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sunny and dry conditions in place during the morning hours. Given the
relatively dry airmass still in place combined with BUFKIT momentum
transfer winds suggesting that gusts to 20 MPH are not out of the
question and fuel moistures in the eight percent realm, went ahead
and issued a Special Weather Statement for elevated fire danger for
our far southeastern counties in coordination with neighboring
offices. While Tds do tick up ever so slightly this afternoon with
the lifting of the warm front, late morning and afternoon mixing may
still allow for RH values in the upper 20s/low 30s in south central
OH/northern KY.

Otherwise, temperatures are a bit slow to warm this morning, however
this should be accelerated as the front meanders back to the north
late morning into afternoon hours.


Previous discussion--> A boundary is situated near the Ohio River
this morning. South of the boundary temperatures are still sitting in
the 50s, while 30s and 40s are common north of the boundary. By
sunrise expect low temperatures north of Interstate 70 to be in the
low 30s while south of the Ohio River will be in the middle 40s.

This boundary will start to move northward during the daytime hours,
reaching as far north as a little north of Interstate 70. Winds will
pick up south of the boundary along with temperatures. There will be
some wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph.  North of the boundary expect
temperatures to be cooler. North of the boundary expect temperatures
generally in the 60s and south of the boundary temperatures are
expected to reach into the 70s.

Near record or record temperatures are expected for today. A little
more uncertainty on reaching records at KDAY and KCMH with boundary
in the area. The forecast high temperature for KDAY is 71 with a
record of 74 set in 1990. The forecast high temperature for KCMH is
71, while the record for the day is 75 set in 1990. The forecast high
temperature for KCVG is 76 which would tie the record for the day
set in 1990.

Decided to hold off on a special weather statement or fire weather
mention in the HWO. While fuel moisture values are expected to be on
the lower side again below 8 percent in some areas, RH values are
expected to be slightly higher today and winds will be a little less
than yesterday. The fire weather threat is not zero, however the
threat does appear more marginal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The boundary will sag back south across the region tonight and wash
out across the region. This will once again allow for a gradient in
temperatures with low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower
30s north to near 50 degrees south of the Ohio River. Dry conditions
will persist across the region for most of the the nighttime hours.

A weak disturbance will move along the boundary for the day on
Thursday. This will allow for precipitation chances in the forecast.
There will some instability during the afternoon and early evening
hours and therefore due to this have a thunderstorm mention in the
forecast as well during this time.

There is some variability with the models as to the location for the
best chance of precipitation on Thursday, however in general it
looks like based on the expected placement of the disturbance that
precipitation chances will start across southwestern portions of the
area Thursday morning. As the day progresses these precipitation
chances will spread further to the northeast across the region.

Far northwestern portions of the area are expected to be north of
the boundary on Thursday and therefore have slightly cooler
temperatures there and also keep dry conditions in that area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Well above normal temperatures expected thru Saturday moderating but
continuing above normal Sunday and Monday. These readings quickly
rebound 10-15 degrees above normal Tuesday. A low chance for showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm will exist Thursday evening with a good
chance for showers/embedded thunderstorms and windy conditions
Saturday. Showers lingering into Sunday, followed by dry conditions
Monday and Tuesday.

Mid and upper level split flow with a southern stream shortwave
tracking thru the TN Valley into the Southeast US Thursday/Thursday
night. Weak forcing and marginal instability may lead to a few
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Thursday - that may linger across
the south Thursday evening.

As we head into the end of the week a strong system develops over
the Central Plains. Friday looks to remain dry with pcpn arriving
Friday night as moisture increases ahead of the aforementioned
system. Warm highs on Friday will range from the lower 70s to the
upper 70s.

Deep surface low pressure over the Central Plains ejects northeast
into the Upper MS Valley by Saturday morning. A couple of strong
southerly low level jets will offer favorable moisture transport
into the Ohio Valley ahead of a surface cold front that pushes thru
the area late Saturday night/early Sunday. An initial axis of pcpn
looks to affect the area overnight into Saturday morning. This
initial convection to our west will likely weaken as it crosses the
area.

With the pressure gradient tightening, ensemble probabilities
continue to indicate the potential for wind gusts in excess of 40
mph on Saturday. Inspection of individual forecast soundings show
the potential for strong synoptic winds in a well mixed environment,
with the strongest winds across West Central Ohio.

Also - ensembles solutions continue to show a good chance of MUCAPE
values above 500 J/KG as good threat for widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms develops into the area Saturday aftn into
Saturday night. Given the strength of the system and potential
instby -- the potential for severe weather will exist Saturday into
Saturday night, with the best chance across the south.

Given this signal -- have increased thunder chances and will
continue to include a mention of the wind gust and severe weather
potential in the HWO. Also, favorable moisture advection looks to
increase PWATs to between 1.25 and 1.4 inches into the Ohio Valley.
Rainfall Saturday and Saturday night looks to be between 1 and 2
inches with locally higher amounts of 2.5 to 3 inches possible. Will
add this heavy rain/flood threat to the HWO.

After highs from the lower 70s to the upper 70s on Saturday, a
chance of showers will linger into Sunday with highs from the lower
50s to the mid 60s in the post frontal environment. Surface high
pressure and drier weather for Monday with highs from the lower 50s
to the middle 50s. A return of southerly flow quickly warms
temperatures to highs in the lower to upper 60s Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A boundary will lift
northward during the day. Some wind gusts around 20 knots will be
possible as winds increase for the afternoon. The boundary will then
once again start to shift south in the evening and wash out across
the region, ending the TAF period with light, in some cases, variable
winds. Generally expect any cloud cover to be mid and high clouds
today, however will start to see some additional VFR clouds move into
the region overnight tonight.

OUTLOOK...LLWS possible Friday night into Saturday morning. MVFR
conditions with showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday
night. Wind gusts above 35 kts likely Saturday and Saturday night.
Wind gusts around 25 to 30 knots possible on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM... /CA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...