271
FXUS61 KILN 011844
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
244 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves into the region and the area dries out.
Temperatures return to near normals and humidity values will
decrease through the rest of the working week. A warming trend
arrives by the weekend, with a return of muggy conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ridging and surface high pressure move into the Ohio Valley region
through the overnight hours. Mass subsidence will allow for clearing
skies and light winds. Given the recent rainfall and antecedent moist
soil conditions, we are seeing a signal for fog during the overnight
into early morning hours on Tuesday. Strongest signal is in
central/eastern Ohio and northern Kentucky into the Appalachian
region. However, wouldn`t be surprised to see patchy fog elsewhere,
especially near areas with ample foliage/grass.

Clear skies combined with CAA will drop overnight temperatures to the
mid/low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Clear skies start the day on Wednesday but cu will build in
throughout the afternoon hours. High pressure remains in control and
dry conditions continue- afternoon dew points in the low to mid 60s
with daytime high temperatures reaching the mid 80s.

Overnight, we remain quiet and dry. Lows fall to the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
While ridging centered in the central CONUS dominates the region
beginning Thursday, portions of Ohio are more dominated by NW flow,
so some chances for scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
generally along/north of I-70 Thursday and Friday afternoons in
diurnal instability. But with the ridge building in, the region will
trend overall toward a drier pattern, but with increasing
temperatures. Thursday starts off with mid/upper 80s, with
increasing temperatures each day getting into the low to mid 90s by
the weekend. There`s some uncertainty with whether or not surface
dewpoints will bring heat index values into the upper 90s, as well
as potential cloud cover increase by especially Sunday. Nonetheless,
HI values could approach mid/upper 90s Saturday/Sunday, depending
upon strength of the ridge and cloud cover with approaching
shortwave especially on Sunday.

As the ridge shifts off to the SE CONUS by Monday, some differences
in solutions on the breakdown itself and the potential strength and
timing of a trough through the central/lower Great Lakes. Storm
chances increase late Sunday and especially into Monday/Tuesday,
with temperatures settling into more seasonal values in the mid-
upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers continue to move through central and eastern Ohio/ northern
Kentucky at the time of this writing; low end VFR CIGs still exist at
eastern TAF sites (KCMH/KLCK) along with MVFR VSBYs. These conditions
should improve this afternoon as rain pushes east.

After the bulk of precip moves east, all sites should scatter out
this afternoon. Winds will be light and out of the northwest. As the
cold front associated with this system pushes through later this
afternoon/evening, we will have a thin line of showers/storms that
will move through from west to east. Have timed this out using
Prob30s with thunder between 21Z Tuesday through 2Z-ish Wednesday.

After this, we should quiet down. Winds remain light and variable
overnight. There is a signal for fog formation throughout the Ohio
Valley region into the Appalachians, so have timed this in during
early morning hours. Have low confidence on timing... guidance hints
that fog may form sooner than what is currently in TAFs, but winds
take a bit to decrease.

Wednesday will be dry with scattered cu. Winds out of the
west/northwest under 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...CA