663
FXUS61 KILN 241719
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
119 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and seasonably cool airmass will remain in place across the
region through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered to broken cu across the area this afternoon will dissipate
heading into this evening as a cold front continues to push off to
our southeast tonight. With a cooler and drier airmass advecting into
the region behind it, temperatures tonight will drop into the low to
mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A broad mid and upper level trough will settle into the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley regions Monday into Monday night as surface high
pressure builds in from the west. This will lead to mainly dry and
seasonably cool conditions. Temperatures on Monday will be 10 to 15
degrees below normal with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
Lows Monday night will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Tuesday morning, a large upper level trough will be located over
northern Quebec, with its influence extending across much of the
north-central and northeaster CONUS. At the surface, an area of high
pressure will be centered over Iowa, extending eastward into the
Ohio Valley. This surface high will move over the ILN CWA by
Wednesday evening, and then drift off the coast of the Carolinas by
later on Thursday.

The main story for the extended forecast period will be for a period
of weather that will be cooler and drier than normal. The air mass
associated with the high will be fairly dry, with precipitable water
values forecast to be in the 0.4 to 0.5 inch range by Wednesday
morning. The coolest day, in terms of afternoon high temperatures,
appears likely to be Tuesday -- a day where the wind flow will still
be generally northwesterly on the east side of the high. Highs
Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, about 10-15
degrees below normal for late August.

Once the high moves to the east, although boundary layer wind flow
will remain light, a slow warming trend will begin. By Friday,
Saturday, and Sunday, highs will increase into the mid 70s to lower
80s, though these values will still be a bit below normal.

As shortwaves move east through the flow at the base of the upper
trough, at various times during the week, precipitation will likely
remain to the north of the area. However, as these smaller-scale
features are not being handled consistently by the models from run
to run, it is not out of the question that some light rain could
occur with a stronger shortwave. As of now, confidence in any rain
appears too low to include in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sct to bkn cu across the area this afternoon will dissipate as we
head into this evening. Drier air moving into the region should help
limit fog development overnight. Scattered cu development can be
expected again during the day on Monday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...JGL