044
FXUS61 KILN 191338
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
938 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected at times today as a cold
front moves into the Ohio Valley. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
will continue Sunday into Monday as a low pressure system lifts
northeast through the Great Lakes region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
The main focus for the near term period is going to be the
expectation for scattered showers/storms to move through the region
through early evening. There is plenty of impressive deep-layer
shear to work with, as well as some relatively steep ML lapse rates,
suggesting that ongoing convection in the area, as well as upstream
across IL/IN, should continue to maintain structure and strength as
it moves swiftly to the NE amidst a slowly-destabilizing
environment. Any N-S oriented or bowing line segment is going to
bring with it the elevated potential for strong to damaging wind
gusts, especially into early/mid afternoon as the BL destabilizes and
the LL thermodynamic environment ripens.

The limiting factor to a more widespread severe threat is going to be
the propensity for the clustering of storms to continue to shunt the
outflow boundary (stable air) a bit further to the SE progressively
with time. This should slowly create a "worked over" environment for
many spots near/N of I-71 by midday, with the only "pristine" LL
environment still lingering in parts of N KY into far south-central
OH into late afternoon/early evening. So with this in mind, the best
severe potential should gradually shift to the SE through the
afternoon hours, maximizing near the I-71 corridor early to mid
afternoon, before focusing across the SE third of the local area into
early evening. With strong deep- layer shear and the presence of
good ML lapse rates, both damaging winds and large hail will be
possible with the strongest storms.

With the front draped across the region, we will end up with a
decent temperature gradient across our area today with afternoon
highs ranging from the mid 60s northwest to the lower 80s in our far
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The showers and any thunderstorms will begin to taper off heading
into this evening as the front continues to sag southeast and we
lose the diurnal instability. The front will stall out to our south
later tonight into Sunday morning before beginning to lift back to
the north as warm front Sunday afternoon as a developing surface low
lifts north across the mid Mississippi Valley. This will combine
with a strengthening low level jet ahead of the low to lead to
scattered showers and chance for thunderstorms during the day on
Sunday, especially across western portions of our area.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s north to the upper 50s
south with highs on Sunday ranging from the low 60s in the north to
the upper 70s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes Sunday night
through Monday. On Sunday night, a warm front east of the low lifts
further north of the Ohio Valley which will help to reinforce the
warm air in place. Shower and storms chances remain fairly minimal
with lack of forcing for at least the first half of the night.
Forecast lows only drop to near 60.

On Monday, the low continues to progress northeast and an associated
cold front works through the Ohio Valley during the day. Shower and
storms chances increase ahead of the front. Currently, severe
probabilities remain on the low side since only a low amount of
instability is modeled in the warm sector. Additionally,
shower/storm coverage is not expected to be overly high.

Slightly cooler and drier air returns behind the front for the
middle of the week. Shower and storm chances return by the end of
the week when another stalled boundary drifts into the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Occasional showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to move
east northeast across the area today as a cold front sags slowly
southeast across the area. Ahead of the front, expect VFR conditions
to prevail with local MVFR conditions possible within some of the
showers and storms. Pcpn will taper off from northwest to southeast
across the area later this afternoon and into the evening as the cold
front moves through. Southwest winds ahead of the front will swing
around to the northwest later today and then to the north overnight.
MVFR cigs will also spread into the area behind the front later today
and into tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Monday along with a chance for
thunderstorms.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...JGL