475
FXUS61 KILN 100904
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
404 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will track across the are today and tonight
bringing accumulating snow. High pressure will then build in for
the weekend. A cold front will then move through Sunday night
into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Short wave lifting out of the southern Plains ahead of a
northern stream trough will push into the lower Ohio Valley by
the end of the period. Lift out ahead of this system will result
in a shield of snow overspreading the region this afternoon.
Latest guidance trends are just a bit slower with onset. So
while accumulations will affect the evening rush hour along and
to the west of the I-75 corridor, including the Cincinnati and
Dayton metros, where an inch or two will occur by that time,
further east daytime accumulations will be lighter. There may
be little impact for the Columbus area by evening rush and if
there is, it appears that would be very late.

Highs will reach the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Snow will be ongoing at the start of the period but then move
off to the east tonight. Snow may linger just a bit longer into
the overnight hours generally along and north of I-70 as a
northern stream short wave quickly follows the initial southern
stream impulse, the latter being the primary forcing for this
snow event. There have been very minor downward adjustments in
precipitation amounts and thus storm total snow accumulation.
But overall, we are still expecting a 2 to 4 inch event area
wide with slight higher amounts in western counties and slightly
lower in eastern counties. Still cannot completely rule out a
few places reaching 4 inches in southeast Indiana, but that
potential has trended lower as well.

In the wake of this system, there will be another very weak
disturbance moving through on Saturday morning. In addition,
there will be a bit of moisture feed off of the southern end of
Lake Michigan which could result in some flurries or very light
snow from west central Ohio into central Ohio on Saturday
morning. Clouds will predominate but there could be some breaks
especially later in the day.

Not much diurnal range during this period. Lows will be in the
lower 20s with highs in the mid to upper 20s again, although a
few spots could get to 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be centered over the middle Ohio Valley Saturday
night, then will exit to the east on Sunday. A rather dry clipper
system will then dig southeast toward our area by Sunday night.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front will offer less frigid
temperatures on Sunday with even a bit of sunshine. However, this
"warm up" will be short-lived as another surge of arctic air will
arrive behind the system late Monday into Tuesday. Highs will only
reach the teens Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the single digits
each night.

Another shortwave will be approaching from the west on Thursday. At
this time, it appears a warm front will bring a chance of snow
showers to the Ohio Valley to close the period.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some light fog early in the period will affect KLUK. Otherwise
VFR with high clouds descending into a mid deck for the first
half of the period. Snow will spread across the region after
18Z. Initially this will be light but then quickly drop
visibilities to IFR with ceilings lower to IFR as well a few
hours later. Visibilities will start to come up late in the
period except at the Columbus terminals as snow starts to move
out. But IFR ceilings will linger.

OUTLOOK...IFR ceilings will lift to MVFR by Saturday. MVFR
ceilings may linger into Saturday night. MVFR ceilings and MVFR
to IFR visibilities possible Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>054-060>063-
     070>072-077>081.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for OHZ046-055-056-064-065-073-074-082-088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...