461
FXUS61 KILN 011034
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
634 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a cooler, drier airmass will remain in place
across the region today. Heat and humidity will return by
midweek, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will build southeast into the central
Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley today. It will be cooler and
drier. Other than a FEW diurnal cumulus and some high clouds
moving in from the west late, it will be mostly sunny. Highs
will range from the mid and upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The center of the surface high will shift east to the eastern
Great Lakes and New England tonight. Ridging will still extend
back into the middle Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, mid level ridging
will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Some high
clouds will filter through the mid level ridge, allowing skies
to vary between mostly clear and partly cloudy. It will still be
cool with lows generally in the 50s.

On Tuesday, as the center of the surface high moves off the New
England and mid Atlantic coast, low level flow will veer from
an easterly direction to a southerly direction. Meanwhile, the
mid level ridge will extend from the lower Ohio Valley northeast
into the central/eastern Great Lakes. A warming trend will
ensue as mid level geopotential heights rise and the airmass
warms. Also, dewpoints will be on the increase due to the
developing southerly flow. Under partly to mostly sunny skies,
high temperatures will warm into the mid 80s north to near 90
along and south of the Ohio River.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather is indicated from Tuesday night to Wednesday
morning as high pressure exits east. A meandering frontal
boundary will then provide convergence and lift leading to
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday and Friday. Model soundings show
ample PWAT, instability and winds aloft supporting heavy rain
and isolated downbursts. A weakening boundary to the southeast
will still allow a chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday and Sunday.

Hot temperatures are forecast on Wednesday with highs in the
low and mid 90s. Heat indices may briefly exceed 100 in some
locations Wednesday afternoon. Highs are expected to retreat to
the 80s for Thursday through Sunday thanks to clouds, precip and
modest cold advection associated with the frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

Surface high pressure will build southeast into the central
Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley today. A FEW mainly diurnal
cumulus can be expected. Winds will be from the northeast around
10 knots with some local gusts between 15 and 20 knots after
15Z.

For tonight, the center of the surface high will shift to the
eastern Great Lakes and New England, but will still influence
and extend back into the Ohio Valley. Some high level clouds
will spill east overnight. Winds will become more easterly
between 5 and 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman