Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
040 FXUS61 KILN 032307 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 707 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A relatively quiet stretch of weather is expected locally through the week, with periodic low-end shower and storm chances, particularly Tuesday. Nevertheless, coverage should remain fairly limited through midweek, with even less coverage for the end of the upcoming week. Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected for the foreseeable future, with a return to more seasonably humid conditions by Tuesday and beyond. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... At the sfc, very dry air remains entrenched across the region with sfc high pressure centered over the ern Great Lakes. E/NE sfc flow will continue to supply dry LL air into the area through today, even with the approach of a meandering weak low N into the region from the TN Vly. This system will gradually move to the NNW through the day on Monday into the SW OH Vly, bringing with it a narrow corridor/axis of higher LL moisture/dewpoints, which should initially focus just to the W/SW of the ILN FA. This axis of better LL moisture and slightly better forcing should produce scattered to numerous showers/storms by late in the day to the W/SW of the local area, with perhaps a stray SHRA possible in N KY and SE IN where LL moisture availability will be slightly better. But most, if not all, spots remain dry through tonight. Highs today will reach into the lower 80s by late afternoon amidst abundant sunshine before dipping into the upper 50s once again tonight. There will be a bit more cloud cover near/S of the OH Rvr through the day today into tonight, keeping overnight temps in the lower 60s for far srn parts of the local area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... With the meandering low drifting to the NW into SW parts of the region, the best moisture advection should occur to the SW of the ILN FA through Monday as LL flow remains generally easterly, helping replenish dry air from the E. There certainly will still be some erosion to the dry air locally, but it will happen rather slowly through the next 24-48 hours. There will be a chance for a few showers and perhaps an isolated storm by early in the afternoon across the Tri-State before drier air attempts to move back in from the E. The best chance for a few showers/storms locally may evolve late Monday night into Tuesday as the aforementioned low weakens and becomes a diffuse LL wave, which will continue to drift to the NW. This will allow for LL flow to have a more SSE component come Monday night, enhancing some better moisture advection into S/SW parts of the local area toward Tuesday morning and beyond. Highs on Monday top out in the lower to mid 80s from SW to NE, respectively. More expansive cloud cover in the Tri-State will likely keep temps a bit cooler in these locales than for spots further to the NE where filtered sunshine will be more prevalent. However, a trend toward cloudier conditions should evolve from SW to NE through the day. Lows Monday night will be closer to seasonal norms, generally in the mid 60s, as better precip chances evolve in N KY into the Tri-State and ern IN toward daybreak Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The Ohio Valley will remain on the western fringe of a surface high centered over southeastern Canada this upcoming week. A gradual warming and moistening trend occurs through the end of the week with the highest theta e air arriving late in the week on southerly winds. More of a southeasterly component off the Appalachians could help to dry out the air some for the midweek with downsloping. Increasing afternoon shower/storm chances accompany the more summerlike air by Thursday or Friday. Ensemble guidance suggests lows remain above early August averages while highs remain slightly below average until Thursday or Friday. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR through the period. There will be a 6-10kft deck across the area with varying coverage, greatest in the Cincinnati area and least around Columbus. Cannot rule out some showers near the Cincinnati terminals late in the period. Winds will remain east to northeast at 10 kt or less. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...