Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
870 FXUS61 KILN 280606 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 206 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front drops south through the area today which may provide some rain chances, but in general, dry conditions remain favored through the majority of the period. Below normal temperatures continue through the end of the work week and into the weekend. A warming trend develops late this weekend into the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Longwave H5 trough remains over much of the eastern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow pattern. An embedded shortwave over the western Great Lakes will dig southeast into the upper Ohio Valley. An associated surface cold front will settle south, into the northern FA this evening and through the CWA overnight. Scattered showers are expected to develop with this forcing, but the timing of the front will be unfavorable for widespread QPF. Forecast soundings show some rather marginal instability - so an embedded thunderstorm is possible. Best rain threat will be this afternoon and very early evening across the far northern counties. Temperatures remain below normal with highs from the lower 70s north to near 80 south. An axis of higher surface dewpoints will advect into the area ahead of the front - where Td/s increase to the upper 50s. Across the southeast with good mixing have lowered dewpoints into the mid and upper 40s for a period this aftn. This may result in min relative humid values around 30 percent with upper 20 percent values possible. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Longwave H5 trough remains over much of the eastern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow pattern. An embedded shortwave to dig southeast into the upper Ohio Valley. An associated surface cold front settles south, into the northern FA this evening and through the CWA overnight. With the front pushing through during the overnight hours, a few rain showers will be possible - especially during the evening hours. With an increase dewpoints and some increased cloud coverage, lows will only dip into the lower to middle 50s. Clouds scattered out overnight - combined with a light low level post frontal flow will likely result in patchy fog development. Surface high pressure builds into the Great Lakes Friday. Any fog that develops will quickly improve leaving partly sunny sky conditions. Temperatures will be 7-10 degrees below normal with highs from near 70 north to near 80 south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... On Friday evening, a closed upper low will be centered over southern Quebec, with broad troughing remaining in place across much of the eastern CONUS. Over the course of the extended forecast period, lower heights will remain in place over the northeastern CONUS, with a second trough developing upstream of the Great Lakes by the middle of the week. At the surface, high pressure will keep the pattern fairly dry over the Ohio Valley through the weekend and into the early part of the week. On Saturday and Sunday, precipitable water values are forecast to be around a half inch -- a dry air mass that will support a reasonable amount of mixing during the afternoon hours. Moisture will increase somewhat by the middle of the week. There are signs, though inconsistent from model to model and run to run, of a more pronounced return flow of moisture from the south by Tuesday or Wednesday -- ahead of the broader trough developing upstream. This forecast will carry some low-end precipitation chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. In terms of temperatures, a gradual warming trend is expected from Saturday through Wednesday. Saturday will remain about 5-10 degrees below normal, with highs in the lower to upper 70s. By Monday, temperatures will be back in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with similar values expected Tuesday and Wednesday. These values are closer to normal for late August and early September, though still perhaps a couple degrees on the cool side of normal. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Some patchy fog will be possible at the KLUK valley location early this morning. Any fog that develops will quickly improve after sunrise. VFR conditions are generally expected after the river valley fog improves. Winds will pick up during the day to around 10 knots. Isolated wind gusts, especially with shower activity which is expected to develop for the afternoon and into the evening hours. Precipitation is not expected to be overly heavy with dry low level air in place and therefore do not have any visibility restrictions with the precipitation. The best threat for precipitation will occur across the northern TAF sites this afternoon. Surface cold front sags south thru the TAF sites tonight. Clouds decrease overnight with a signal for fog potential. Have limited mention to MVFR vsby restrictions thru 06Z. Some lower restrictions are possible toward sunrise - especially at KLUK and KILN. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...AR