506
FXUS61 KILN 041757
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
157 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail into the weekend amidst increasingly warm
and humid conditions. A weak cold front will approach the area late
Sunday into Monday, providing increased chances for showers and
storms. Isolated showers and storms may continue at times through
midweek with near normal temperatures by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Diurnally-driven Cu are sprouting as some cirrus spills to the SE
into the local area. While a stray/ISO SHRA cannot be completely
ruled out by mid afternoon through this evening, most areas remain
dry with seasonably warm conditions. The best chance for an ISO
SHRA may develop near the Tri-State into SW OH, but activity should
remain spotty enough as to not introduce a slight chance PoP but
rather set the PoP to a minimum of 10% through the remainder of the
day.

Some cirrus/convective debris clouds will filter in from the NW
through the day, but expect this to thin-out with SE extent into the
local area through this evening. Locales near/NW of I-71 will have
the most widespread mid/high clouds by late in the day. Nevertheless,
temps will top out around 90 degrees by later today with dewpoints
generally in the low to mid 60s.

Tranquil conditions continue tonight, providing nearly-ideal
conditions for outdoor activities and festivities. Diurnally-driven
Cu will dissipate toward/beyond sunset, yielding seasonably mild
temps amidst mostly clear skies. Lows bottom out in the upper 60s by
daybreak Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The center of the sfc high will slide off to the E of the region by
Saturday, but the "dry" airmass associated with it will persist,
despite the increase in LL SW flow. The midlevel ridge will expand a
bit into the srn OH Vly while also flattening in the Great Lakes as
a S/W approaches from the W. Temps will nudge a degree or two higher
than will be the case today, generally topping out in the low 90s
just about everywhere.

Dry conditions continue Saturday night with more humidity building
into the region by Sunday. Temps dip into the upper 60s and lower
70s by sunrise Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
To wrap up the weekend, the ridge begins to break down over the
Great Lakes as a weak trough moves eastward. So while hot and humid
weather will continue Sunday afternoon, the heat will not stick
around with daily rainfall chances providing clouds and heat relief
throughout the upcoming week.

There are some differences in how wet the week could be with weak
systems providing opportunities for rainfall chances. However, there
are some differences across the model suite with the GEFS
contributing to a wetter pattern in contrast to the ECMWF ensembles
which is considerable drier.  The reason for this difference is
dependent on how quickly the next trough arrives to the region by
midweek. The ECMWF ensembles are a bit slower, resulting in drier
conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday. The complete ensemble package
eventually aligns with above normal PWATs arriving to the region for
late in the week.

For the forecast, this results in higher chances for rainfall across
the southern half of the forecast area much of the week, with ECMWF
ensembles contributing to lower chances across the north. Rainfall
chances increase area wide on Thursday and Friday as the next
stronger system moves in.

Temperature outlook: For Sunday, heat indices are in the mid 90s to
approaching 100. For the remainder of the week, temperatures are
near seasonal normals, but local high temperatures will ultimately
be dependent on rainfall development. The lack of deep ridging
decreases the potential for another extended heat wave.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT VFR Cu will expand in coverage through peak heating before
dissipating once again toward/beyond 00z. Cannot completely rule out
a stray SHRA this afternoon, particularly near KCVG/KLUK/KILN, but
lack of coverage precluded even a PROB30 at this juncture.

Light/VRB winds will prevail through mid morning Saturday before
increasing to around 5-10kts out of the SW by the end of the day.
More VFR Cu will develop by the end of the period once again.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for OHZ070-071-
     077-078.
     Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Saturday
     night for OHZ046-055-056-065.
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for KYZ091>093.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ050-058-059-066.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for INZ074.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...KC