004
FXUS61 KILN 300816
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
416 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low level moisture will allow for foggy conditions this morning.
Scattered shower activity will be present today associated with
the low pressure system. As this feature moves off to the east
tonight, additional fog is expected to develop.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
A combination of drizzle and isolated shower activity is
currently around the region. In addition, fog has developed in
spots, especially south of the shower activity. Have a special
weather statement out for some of the area locations near and
south of the Ohio River where observations are a quarter to a
half mile and webcams also indicate patchy dense fog. At this
time, it does appear patchy and not widespread and therefore
held off on a dense fog advisory.

Cloud cover will be in place much of the day. Shower activity
will increase and become scattered this afternoon and into the
early evening hours. Cannot rule out an isolated rumble of
thunder given some limited instability, however confidence was
not high enough to include at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Low level moisture will remain in place tonight. Shower activity
will decrease through the evening and into the overnight hours.
Where there are any breaks in the clouds in the evening this
will just lead to additional stratus and fog formation. There
has been a signal for days now for fog tonight. Have patchy
dense fog to areas of dense fog in the forecast and hazardous
weather outlook.

For the day on Tuesday, cannot rule out some precipitation
chances across the lower Scioto valley during the morning and
into the afternoon hours. The main chances for precipitation
however will be associated with a quick moving upper level
disturbance. This feature will allow for showers and potentially
isolated thunderstorms as it moves through. Winds will also pick
up with this feature as well into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front will be moving through the region at the start of the
period. There will be scattered showers and perhaps some thunder
along the front.

Once this clears, high pressure will build in and persist through
Thursday night. A warming trend will occur with readings getting
above normal by Thursday. A weak cold front will pass through on
Friday. Forcing and moisture availability look limited, thus
precipitation chances are low with this system.

Another high will build in on Saturday. There is increasing spread
in guidance solutions heading into Sunday. The ECMWF and CMC
ensemble systems favor a stronger short wave tracking through the
Great Lakes while the GFS ensemble is much weaker. The former would
be sufficient to push another cold front through the area. And with
a bit better upper support a higher chance of showers. Temperatures
over the weekend will be slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Complex aviation forecast. Stratus, fog, and drizzle overnight
will reduce visibilities and cigs. There will be some
improvement during the day, however cigs are still expected to
be reduced a large majority of the day. In addition scattered
showers will be present during the day. Any breaks in the clouds
late in the day or early in the overnight hours Monday night
will just help in the subsequent formation of additional fog and
stratus. Expect conditions to deteriorate Monday night with
reduced cigs and vsbys.

OUTLOOK....Patchy to areas of fog and low stratus, will be
possible tonight into Tuesday morning. Some fog may be dense.
IFR or lower conditions will be possible Tuesday morning. Some
thunderstorms and gusty winds will be possible late Tuesday
afternoon into early Tuesday evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...