122
FXUS61 KILN 022258
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
658 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week
with mostly dry conditions. Seasonal temperatures begin to trend
warmer as we head toward the weekend. The next weather maker arrives
to the region near the end of the weekend into the upcoming work
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A broad area of surface high pressure and upper level riding continue
to move through the Mid-Atlantic region. Mass subsidence results in
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight. The strongest CAA has
now moved off to th east, so overnight lows don`t quite fall as low
as last night but still make it down to the mid 60s, which is around
seasonal normals.

Not expecting widespread fog development however, cannot rule out
some river valley fog where moisture sources are abundant.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be squarely over the forecast area on Thursday and
most locations will remain dry throughout the entire day with some
diurnal cumulus. Highs rise to the mid/upper 80s with feels like
temps in the same realm.

Far to our north, near the Hudson Bay, a low pressure system will be
swinging by. Its trailing cold front will swing down through the
northern Great Lakes and may provide just enough forcing for a
passing afternoon shower/storm for our counties north of I-70,
particularly near the Columbus area.

Overnight into Independence Day should be quiet, with calm winds and
mostly clear skies. Overnight lows are a tad warmer, since the high
will be shifting east and weak southerly flow will begin to return;
temps fall to the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Most of the area should remain dry on Friday, but some uncertainty
with the potential for position and strength of the region sitting
between the departing trough over the NE U.S. and the
building ridge from the central U.S.

Right now, a very low end chance of Friday afternoon isolated
convection working into the periphery of the ridge in areas
generally along/north of I-70.  Will continue to monitor and future
forecast may be adjusted once CAMs come into play, but for now
chance of precip remains below 15 percent in this area, with higher
confidence for a dry 4th in areas further south. Highs generally in
the upper 80s/low 90s.

Saturday becomes the day most dominated by ridging/surface high
pressure, and with it comes increasing temperatures in the low to
even mid 90s. With increased southerly flow and higher dewpoints, HI
values approach the upper 90s. Overall temperatures on Sunday will
be similar to Saturday as ridging still somewhat dominant, but
increasing clouds and a chance for showers/storms nudging into the
NW third of the forecast area from just north of Columbus, through
Dayton and down to near Brookville IN. While HI values again
approach the upper 90s in the south, with the increasing clouds,
still overall expecting HI values to stay below 100, but some areas
could hit that mark near/south of the Ohio River on Sunday.

Beginning Sunday night, the pattern shifts from ridge dominant to
more zonal, with increasing chances of showers/storms. Still some
model member differences on how quickly the ridge breaks down and
allows progression of shortwave/instability to push into the
forecast area. The ridge shifts to the southeast, which depending on
positioning and strength, could set the region up in a pattern of
multi-day convection through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes,
while the upper ridge settles off the southeast coast. This will
generally bring a high chance for showers/storms each day Mon-Wed,
and allow for moderating temperatures settling into the mid-upper
80s for highs for Tue/Wed with mid to upper 60s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will generally be the dominant weather feature over the
TAF period. Patchy fog is possible near prone river valleys early
Thursday morning. However, based on persistence from early this
morning, have limited the fog to MVFR at LUK.

Otherwise, the tail end of a passing disturbance could spark a few
showers across central Ohio Thursday afternoon. Based on the latest
CAMs, will not mention at CMH/LCK due to low confidence amongst HREF
members at this time.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...