Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
689 FXUS61 KILN 111807 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 207 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions with light winds are expected to persist through the period. Tuesday and Wednesday will bring showers and embedded thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The high pressure area centered over the Mid Atlantic is eroding and very slowly drifting east, with slightly more diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity expected this afternoon into the early evening. The activity does have a focused area in the form of a weak surface trough extending from central Ohio just west of Columbus through the Miami Valley into Northern Kentucky. Forcing is somewhat limited so showers are fairly short lived but there could be some clustering and a more ample updraft here or there in this area, so locally heavy rain is possible. Activity dies down by 00z with light and variable winds and overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The surface high finally makes more eastward progress on Tuesday, with an upper trough from the central plains finally approaching the region, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Tuesday afternoon. Some potential for strong thunderstorms in this more focused forcing and DCAPEs nearing 900 J/kg. Thunderstorms should also be slow moving with such limited winds, so heavy rain is a possibility with PWATs exceeding 2" in especially the tri state area. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. As the trough draws closer to the forecast area Tuesday night, still expecting marginal shear to approach the upper Miami Valley and portions of West Central Ohio, though shear increases as diurnally influenced instability wanes. This will keep at least scattered shower and thunderstorms through Tuesday night, with lows near 70 to lower 70s further south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid-level disturbance will be moving through the Great Lakes to start the period Wednesday morning. Despite limited instability, this should present enough forcing for showers and thunderstorms to start the day... more likely from central Ohio down through northern Kentucky. Behind the disturbance, a weak cold front will focus diurnal convection both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. This will effectively hold temperatures down to near normal late summer levels. Mid-level ridging and weak high pressure to our east will keep shower/storm coverage spotty from Friday into the weekend and will also bring a return to above normal temperatures and humidity. Global ensembles hint at another trough dropping into the Great Lakes late Sunday into Monday with another increase in precipitation coverage. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the period for the most part. MVFR visibility expected for KLUK in the 09-12z timeframe. Spotty short-lived showers could impact all but KCMH/KLCK, but less than a PROB30 at this point. With the approach of a mid level trough and surface front through the western Ohio Valley on Tuesday, chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms increase. Introduced at PROB30 for thunderstorms after 18z for KCVG. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM... AVIATION...JDR