346
FXUS61 KILN 261903
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
303 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through the weekend
bringing cooler, drier conditions. As the high moves off to the east
early next week, temperatures will warm once again. Showers and
thunderstorms will occur ahead of the next cold front that will move
through late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure extending from the western Great Lakes southward into
the middle Mississippi Valley will build east into the region
overnight. As it does, increasing subsidence and drying will
eventually scatter then clear current stratocumulus deck. This deck
will be replaced by some high level clouds overnight. Winds will
decrease this evening, then they will become light or variable. Lows
will fall into the upper 30s to the lower 40s. There is a low chance
of some patchy frost in the normally colder, sheltered locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will extend across the area on Sunday, then it will
begin to move east Sunday night. It will still be a little cool on
Sunday with highs ranging from the lower to mid 60s. Lows Sunday
night will fall into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will shift off to the east on Monday, leading to
return southerly flow and above normal temperatures. Aloft, H5
ridging will remain centered across the eastern United States with a
trough over the intermountain west. Shortwave energy will eject
northeast out of this trough, acting to compress the eastern ridge on
Tuesday. Guidance promotes development of a surface low in
association with the shortwave, moving from the northern Lakes into
southeast Canada during the day on Tuesday. At this time, it appears
instability will be more robust ahead of the cold front than with
previous systems. Latest EPS shows SB Cape ranging from 1500-2500
J/kg amongst many of the 50 members. Severe potential will depend on
several factors, such as strength of the mid/upper-level westerlies,
timing of the front/pre-frontal trough, and the amount of sunshine
leading up to any convection that is forced. Will maintain severe
mention in the HWO product consistent with SPC Day 5 risk.

Behind this system, the H5 ridge across the east holds its position
as additional waves eject in southwesterly flow. These waves,
depending on the location of the now-stalled surface front, will lead
to periods of showers and storms. Based on current ensemble
guidance, the focus of the unsettled weather will be late Wednesday
and again late Thursday into Friday morning. The pattern may change
behind this last system with an upper trough being carved out over
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Post frontal CAA stratocumulus clouds (MVFR to VFR) will continue to
lift, erode, and scatter into this evening. These clouds will then
be replaced by some SCT-BKN high level clouds. Otherwise, surface
high pressure extending from the western Great Lakes southward into
the middle Mississippi River Valley will build east into the central
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. As this occurs, northwest to north winds
10 to 15 knots with local gusts to 20 knots will decrease between
22Z and 00Z, becoming light northerly or northeasterly overnight.

On Sunday, high pressure will continue to extend across the region.
Only a FEW-SCT high clouds are expected. Winds will generally be from
the east between 5 and 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms expected to occur Tuesday into Tuesday
night. MVFR/IFR conditions likely Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman