820
FXUS61 KILN 281813
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
113 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will move east across the western and
central Great Lakes today. It will be warmer and windy ahead of
this low and its associated cold front. As the low moves east to
the eastern Great Lakes and New England tonight, the cold front
will push south through the region. Much colder air can be
expected behind the front along with a few snow showers or
flurries on Saturday. High pressure will then settle across the
region Saturday night into Sunday with below normal temperatures
persisting.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A strong surface low pressure system will move across the Great
Lakes region today. With mainly clear skies and a tightening
pressure gradient across our area, good mixing will develop
from late morning into this afternoon. This will lead to windy
conditions with wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range possible
across much of our area this afternoon, with the strongest gusts
likely across our northwest. In the southwest flow, temperatures
will climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, winds will remain gusty as a cold front approaches
then passes southeast across the region. The gusts, however,
will be more in the 25 to 35 mph early on, then 20 to 25 mph
overnight. The front itself appears to be moisture starved.
Clouds will increase with the front, and there could be a low
chance for showers, mainly across central Ohio. For the
overnight period, CAA will be taking place. This will spread CAA
stratocumulus clouds southward. We could start to see a few
flurries or a slight chance for snow showers across or northwest
CWFA late. Lows will range from the mid 20s north to the mid
30s south.

On Saturday, a mid level trough axis will still have to pass
southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Given the CAA
across the Great Lakes, we should see a good deal of cloud
cover. The cold flow off the Great Lakes, cyclonic flow aloft
with the mid level trough, and diurnal shallow instability, can
not rule out a few flurries or snow showers, especially given
the cloud deck will begin to insect the dendritic growth zone.
It will be brisk and cold for the first of March. Highs will not
warm up that much from morning lows due to the CAA and expected
cloud cover. Highs will range from the upper 20s north to the
upper 30s south.

For Saturday night, the mid level trough axis will move east.
Under a northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure will begin
to build into the region from the northwest. Skies will
gradually clear overnight and winds will diminish. This will
allow for cold temperatures in the 15 to 20 degree range by
Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains in control on Sunday, keeping the
region dry with some sunshine, though chilly, with highs in the
30s. Sunday overnight lows fall to the 20s and high clouds
begin to overspread the region from the west.

We`ll begin warm air advecting again for the start of the work
week on the backside of the surface high. Additionally, a weak
shortwave will scoot just east of the Ozarks, opening up and
dissolving into the larger flow. This will act to enhance the
warming trend we`ll already be feeling. High temperatures on
Monday reach the mid 40s. Some low end PoPs are possible with
this wave, particularly closer to the Tri-State.

PoP chances continue to increase as we head toward mid-week,
when a more robust system looks to impact the region. Ample
southerly flow on Tuesday will result in temperatures reaching
the mid to upper 50s (low 60s along the Ohio River???), with Tds
rising into the 40s as a surge of theta-e pushes into the
Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. There are still quite a few details to
be worked out on timing- though the majority of the impacts look
to arrive Tuesday overnight through Wednesday afternoon. With
recent runs, it still appears that there is a reasonable chance
for convection, gusty synoptic winds with a cranking LLJ, and
possibly heavy rain.

After this system moves through, we`ll be back to slightly more
seasonable temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft with mid level shortwave dropping southeast
from the Upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes today/tonight.
Associated deep surface low to track east-southeast across the
Northern Great Lakes. ILN/s area will be in the warm sector
out ahead of the low and an attendant cold front.


Surface pressure gradient tightens, and low level wind fields
will increase this afternoon. Windy conditions peak thru
22Z. South to southwest winds will be sustained between 15 and
25 knots with wind gusts ranging from near 30 knots across south
central Ohio and northeast Kentucky to up to 45 knots in parts
of west central Ohio. Only a few to scattered high clouds thru
the afternoon.

For tonight, a surface cold front is forecast to move southeast
across the region. Gusty winds will continue into the evening
and into the overnight as winds veer with time from the
southwest to the northwest. Strongest gusts will occur in the
00Z and 03Z time frame which could be up to 30 knots. The front
will have very limited moisture, so some mid clouds are
expected, and there could be a very low chance for a few
showers across central Ohio. Cold air advection develops behind
the front and will spread stratocumulus clouds southward into
the region overnight. Low level cyclonic flow with a mid level
trough and the cold air moving over the Great Lakes may result
in a few snow showers or flurries late across the northwest
Saturday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible on Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>055-060>063-070>072-077-078.
KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ089>096.
IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR