Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
180 FXUS61 KILN 041347 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 947 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure in the eastern Great Lakes region will keep a dry east wind over much of the Ohio Valley through the early part of the forecast. An nearly stationary upper trough situated in the Midwest will see some energy lift northeast into the region through Tuesday and then slowly meander towards Ohio on Wednesday. Scattered to isolated shower activity along with some thunderstorms are possible through most of this week as the upper trough meanders towards our area, stalls, and experiences a slow but constant weakening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A narrow axis of LL moisture/instby continues to nose to the NNW across parts of central/wrn KY and srn IL/IN, with indications for this corridor of better lift/moisture to stay just to the SW of the ILN FA through early evening. This pooling of dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s will finally begin to expand a bit NE into parts of the Tri-State toward midnight and beyond, but with the loss of diurnally-driven instby, a decrease in coverage of SHRA/TSRA should occur as the bulk of the clustering of convection begins to nudge into the local area past sunset. Through this evening, the best chance for a few scattered SHRA/TSRA will be located near/SW of a corridor from Ripley Co IN to Pendleton Co KY near/past sunset, with locales NE of this axis favored to stay dry through today. Ample LL dry air will remain entrenched across most of the local area, particularly near/N of the OH Rvr and near/E of I-75. However, some mid/high clouds will continue to stream in through the daytime, resulting in filtered sunshine through early afternoon before a trend toward mostly cloudy skies evolves later in the day for a larger expanse of the region. Highs today will reach into the lower to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The upper trough axis remains west of the CWA, with some weak energy lifting ne ahead of it into swrn CWA. Some showers and storms could be lingering into the overnight hours but should be very isolated in nature. Lows will be in the lower 60s, with readings in the mid 60s along and s of the Ohio. Tues will see a similar scenario as today with highs in the lower 80s. The upper trough makes the slightest tick eastward towards the IL/IN border but continues to weaken through this time. Some few parameters favoring showers persist through the early morning in the sw and then daytime insolation kicks in for the afternoon. Marginally better shower/tstm chances exist in the sw 1/2 of CWA, maximized sw of Cincy metro area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak mid level trough will progress east across the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Some weak instability will develop through the day and this may be enough to produce a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon into early evening. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Weak mid level ridging will then build into the Ohio Valley through the end of the workweek before beginning to shift off to the east through the weekend. This will result in a gradual warming trend with daytime highs back into the mid to upper 80s by the second half of the long term period. It will also be tough to rule out a few diurnally enhanced showers or thunderstorms each day, but pcpn chances appear low enough at this point to maintain a mainly dry forecast. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Under increasing cirrus today, stratocu deck around 8kft will occur at CVG/LUK and to a lesser extent, ILN. Some fair wx cu will occur n/ne of the edge of the sc in sw OH, with DAY and possibly ILN finding some few/sct fair wx cu underneath the prevailing cirrus cloud deck. Only high clouds are expected in central OH and CMH/LCK for the next 24 hours, though some of the lower cu could enter late tomorrow night. Weak indications of some shower activity are still noted in the southwest, but are too weak and further sw than CVG/LUK for including in the forecast. Isold coverage if it develops would be best handled with an amendment if development looks to take aim on any one terminal. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Franks