685
FXUS61 KILN 050237
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
937 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the region tonight, providing a
few rain showers, mixing with snow showers before ending. Much
colder temperatures and gusty winds are expected through
Thursday. Surface high pressure will offer cold and dry
conditions Friday and Saturday before temperatures begin to rise
and rain returns late Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Forecast cut back significantly on snow potential this evening
and early overnight period in favor of rain showers. These
showers are focused on two bands, the first currently following
I-71 and coincident with a pressure trough, with the second
occurring with the cold frontal passage. Gusts 45-50 mph are
expected to briefly occur with the rush of cold air immediately
behind the front, with surface winds remaining gusty through
Thursday. As overnight lows dip into the teens, these winds will
create wind chill values within a few degrees on either side of
zero. Blustery to say the least.

With precip noted along and behind the front, the air does not
get a chance to cool off from aloft in order to produce the snow
that was expected earlier. A changeover is still likely, but the
bulk of any precip should not last long in the area that may see
this change, which still lies north of the I-70 corridor.
Amounts here should be around a half inch, most a little lower
and possibly up to an inch in an isolated area or two.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Very dry and cold air advects into the region on Thursday. This
will cause gusty winds to continue through much of the day.
Downwind of Lake Michigan, our northern counties can expect
cloudy skies with flurries or light snow showers at times.
Further south, we may see breaks in the clouds during the
afternoon. Highs will only reach into the 20s. Winds begin to
slack off a bit Thursday night as low pressure moves off into
the Canadian Maritimes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Below normal temperatures are expected into at least the first part
of the weekend as high pressure of Canadian origin traverses east
across the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. Highs in the upper 20s
to the lower 30s on Friday will climb into the upper 30s to the
lower 40s by Saturday. Lows friday night will be mainly in the teens.

By Sunday, mid level ridging and return flow/backing winds aloft
will push temperatures to near or a little bit above normal.
Moisture will be returning as well within the southwest flow aloft,
which may bring a low chance of rain west late in the day.
After lows in the upper 20s to the lower 30s, highs will warm into
the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

A wetter, mild period is anticipated by early next week as a digging
mid level trough interacts with moisture/large scale extent/low
level jet, bringing higher chances for rain into the region. A cold
front will eventually make its way east during the Tuesday/Wednesday
time frame, lowering the chances for pcpn, but perhaps allowing the
pcpn to mix with a a little snow as colder air filters back in.
Above normal temperatures will cool back down to near or slightly
below normal readings.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High based cigs will lower as a cold front approaches from the
northwest tonight. Warm sector rain showers ahead of it, a
rain/snow mix with its passage, and a quick burst of snow with
lingering flurries/non accumulating snow behind it. Attm, front
will pass from nw-se and reach DAY about an hour before
remaining TAF sites, generally between 04Z and 06Z, ending about
3-4 hours afterward. VFR cigs and vsbys will be found until
precip begins, with MVFR cigs lingering through the morning
hours and only a few MVFR vsbys. MVFR vsbys will primarily be
driven by the blowing snow/rain as sw winds gusting to 30kt turn
nw and increase gusts to 40kt. Expect a sustained 20kt for the
remainder of the overnight and the better course of the morning
hours on Thursday.

A break in cigs is expected after daybreak at CVG/LUK/DAY/ILN,
with VFR cigs returning in the afternoon at DAY and ILN. CMH/LCK
should see cigs near 3kft for the better course of Thursday.

What few LLWS reports have come in this evening have not been
near amendment criteria. Will keep an eye on obs as the front
passes, and may issue an amendment to include it if timing or
speed is off significantly or happens to be in question for
more than an hour`s time.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible late Sunday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Franks