399
FXUS61 KILN 161031
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
631 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region through Friday. A cold
front will move through the area over the weekend bringing showers
and possibly some thunderstorms as well as gusty winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Remaining clouds in the Tri-State will continue to sink south and
clear the area early this morning. From there on out, expect mainly
clear skies. Temperatures will be near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Surface high centered over the eastern Great Lakes to start the
period will translate southeast during this time frame. Meanwhile,
an upper ridge axis will be moving east. As the axis of the ridge
moves off, it will allow for high clouds to start spilling into the
region on Friday.

With a dry airmass, light winds, and little to no cloud cover
tonight, temperatures will be cool. And some frost could develop in
areas east and north of Columbus. But the dry airmass will also allow
for a large diurnal range with temperatures warming to a couple of
degrees either side of 70 on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Energetic system crossing the northern Rockies at the beginning of
the period will dig into the central Plains and then close off a mid
level low as it pivots across the Great Lakes late Saturday night
through Sunday night. At the surface, low pressure will pass north of
the area, but a cold front will swing through on Sunday morning. This
system will bring some of the strongest winds fields we have had in
this region for quite some time.

Ahead of the front, wind gusts will be a bit limited in warm air
advection, although temperatures will rise substantially with highs
nearly 15 degrees above normal, which is still below record
territory. Showers may start to move into areas north and west of
I-71 late Saturday afternoon as some energy lifts northeast ahead of
the main trough. Likely, there will not be a lot of eastward
progression of precipitation until the latter part of Saturday night
as the stronger forcing arrives. There is a corridor of 200-300 J/kg
CAPE ahead of the front, so cannot rule out some thunder. And even
any more robust showers along the front could mix down stronger
winds.

Highs will be early on Sunday with falling temperatures in the wake
of the front. Winds, both sustained and gusts, will increase in the
cold air advection. Latest NBM has started to trend higher with gusts
of 30 to 40 mph. And while ensemble systems still have low
probabilities of even stronger gusts, there is some upside potential
from the current forecast. In addition, there will be more post-
frontal showers as the upper low passes.

This system will move out fairly quickly, but the pattern will be
active. High pressure will build in Monday, but another cold front
will move through on Tuesday. There is agreement of broad mid level
troughing into mid week, but increasing divergence on the strength of
energy moving through it. However at this point, Wednesday looks to
be another respite.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little to no clouds through the period. There may be some shallow fog
causing variable visibility at KLUK late. Northeast winds less than
10 kt will become easterly after 00Z.

OUTLOOK...Wind gusts at or above 30 kt possible Sunday. MVFR ceilings
possible Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...