


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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605 FXUS61 KILN 040111 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 911 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Waves of low pressure will result in more rounds of showers and storms, bringing the prospects for heavy rain and potential flooding into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms will persist through the overnight with locally heavy rain possible. Mesoscale guidance suggests a bulk of the heaviest precipitation is likely to fall from I-70 on south with the highest totals possibly near the Ohio River through daybreak. Isolated rainfall totals upwards of 2 inches are likely across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Some flooding issues may start to develop tonight given the high rainfalls totals expected tonight falling on already saturated ground. The main areas of concern will be smaller creaks and rivers along with some isolated flash flood problems. This rainfall is being driven by anomalously high PWATs overlapping with strong ascent and frontogenesis along the nose of a nocturnally- enhanced LLJ parked across southern Ohio/northern Kentucky. This round of widespread rainfall will contribute to the flood risk increasing through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Friday morning, showers and some thunderstorms are likely ongoing, especially closer to the Ohio River. Throughout the mid-morning and into the afternoon, a deepening ridge will begin to push the better low-level jet stream forcing northward. How the front and associated rainfall evolves throughout the period is a bit uncertain as convective/mesoscale processes offset the northward push of the broader synoptic flow. Eventually, perhaps as late as Friday evening, the synoptic flow prevails, especially farther to the west as surface low pressure deepens over the mid Mississippi River Valley. New convective development forms to the west of the local area, spreading southeastward into the Ohio Valley Friday evening into Friday night. If the convective processes can remain established into the afternoon, warm and moist air attempting to move northward will encounter surface outflow boundaries and/or the lingering front, initiating additional thunderstorms. This situation would increase the potential for localized flash flooding and heavier rainfall. For now, the WPC DAY 2 ERO Slight Risk is appropriate, but a locally higher threat may develop based on this scenario. Severe threat Friday night remains marginal with the more rich surface moisture and warm temperatures struggling to advect northward along with meager mid-level lapse rates. So while plentiful shear is present, the thermodynamic environment is not conducive for surface based convection through the overnight. By the close of the short term period, a corridor of thunderstorms is likely to be occurring over the area, with uncertainty on the exact placement. Due to the saturation of soils and elevated streams, flooding and flash flooding will be a concern heading into Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The surface boundary will be situated just off to our northwest Saturday morning with our area mainly in the warm sector. The boundary will begin to sag down across our area Saturday into Saturday night as the final wave of low pressure moves east along it. This will lead to one last round of decent rainfall, mainly Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. It looks like 1 to 2 inches, with locally high amounts may be possible with this last batch of pcpn. This may represent the best chance for flooding/flash flooding through this longer event, as streams will already be running high by this point. We will likely end up with a decent temperature gradient on Saturday with highs ranging from the mid 60s northwest to the low 80s in our far southeast. The boundary will push off to our southeast through the day on Sunday as an upper level trough settles in across the Great Lakes region through mid week. This will lead to below normal temperatures through the rest of the long term period, with the coolest day looking to be on Tuesday when daytime highs will only be in the low to mid 40s. Some mid level short wave energy moving through the trough will lead to some lower end chances for showers, particularly Monday afternoon into Monday night and then again Wednesday night into Thursday. Thermal profiles may be cool enough Monday night to allow for some snow to mix in with the showers. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue through the TAF period. For this rest of this evening and overnight, showers and some thunder is are forecast at all the sites. Lowering MVFR and IFR ceilings accompany the rain. For Friday, showers and storms may be more focused along and near the Ohio River with KCVG and KLUK being primarily impacted through the day. MVFR and IFR ceilings persist across the sites with the unsettled setup in place. Light northerly winds develop overnight. Winds veer to the northeast and eventually the east on Friday. OUTLOOK...Periods of showers and thunderstorms will occur into Sunday morning. This will result in MVFR/IFR conditions from time to time. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...McGinnis NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Campbell