Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
071 FXUS61 KILN 301731 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 131 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend. A pattern shift will bring back rain chances for next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Upper level ridging along with broad high pressure continues to dominate the Midwest region. This regime will maintain itself through the next several days, keeping the weather pattern fairly stagnant. Portions of central OH down through north-central KY are observing some mid and high level clouds mixing in due to blowoff from Hurricane Imelda. Elsewhere, plentiful sunshine can be expected, helping to keep temperatures well above normal as highs reach the middle 80s area-wide. Lows expected to dip into the 50s across the fa tonight with efficient radiative cooling. Some localized valley fog is possible. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... H5 ridge becomes more amplified on Thursday, stretching across a large portion of the central and now eastern CONUS. High pressure will continue to usher in dry, easterly flow into the region, with dewpoints dipping even lower Wednesday afternoon. Air temperatures may actually trend a few degrees cooler compared to Tuesday, but still anticipating highs around 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms. Drier air mass will allow for even cooler low temps Wednesday night, with some middle to upper 40s possible in our northern counties. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Amplified H5 ridge remains stretched across the vast majority of the CONUS, with the exception of the Pacific NW. Surface high pressure will maintain control of the Ohio Valley for the majority of the extended forecast period. Center of the surface high will drift down from Canada into far northeastern US, near Maine. The center of the high will be anomalously strong, near 1035mb. The surface high will slide southward and broaden in scope as we progress towards the weekend, which will inevitably weaken the strength of the high (although still maintaining ~1025mb near the center). Underneath the H5 ridge, the surface high will continue to meander around the Atlantic coast. This will not only keep forecast conditions dry through the Ohio Valley, but also maintain the trend for above normal temperatures. A shift in the weather pattern occurs during the early to middle part of next week as the center of the ridge axis shifts eastward, eventually being replaced by a longwave trough. This may introduce rain chances as early as next Tuesday for our fa. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions prevail through the taf period. The only exception is at KLUK, with vsby reductions expected due to valley fog. Skies expected to remain mostly clear through Wednesday other than a few passing cirrus clouds. Winds remain out of the northeast, increasing to near 10 kts Wednesday afternoon. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...Clark