052
FXUS61 KILN 031800
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
200 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Waves of low pressure will result in more rounds of showers and
storms, bringing the prospects for heavy rain and potential flooding
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning update...
Only change to the near term forecast was to remove all mention of
thunderstorms for the next few hours given current radar trends and
environment. Through the afternoon, thunderstorm activity moves in
from the south, providing renewed chances for thunder. Otherwise,
maintained the highest PoPs in the far south and southeast with
continued light to moderate rain.

Previous discussion...
A cold front will move southeast across the area today. Showers and
embedded storms over our southeast CWFA early this morning will taper
by mid morning, with not much expected with the cold front itself
during this period. The approach of a s/wv in the southwest flow
aloft will increase low level convergence and another LLJ will allow
shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon, first across the
south, then spreading north. Meanwhile the surface boundary itself
will settle south of the Ohio River. Believe severe chances in our
far south will be low given that the boundary slips south of the Ohio
River with cooler weather allowing for lower instability. Highs will
range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A Flood Watch will remain in effect for the entire region into the
weekend, at least into Sunday morning.

Deep moist flow from the southwest will interactive with embedded
s/wvs and low level jets to result in several rounds of rainfall
which could be heavy, resulting in flooding.

For tonight, showers and storms will increase in coverage across the
region as a low level jet and its associated convergence bring
additional rainfall. It will actually somewhat cool, especially
north, as the low level flow will veer from the northeast. Lows will
range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.

On Friday, showers and storms will continue as the aforementioned
boundary moves slowly north to the Ohio River. Highs will range from
the upper 50s north to the lower 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For Friday night into Saturday, wet weather will persist with high
chances for showers and storms. There will be the threat for some
strong to severe storms as a wave of low pressure passes by to the
northeast, allowing another cold front to push southeast into the
region.

A stronger mid level trough is then poised to dig east/southeast
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday. The
Saturday into the Saturday night timeframe may be the period with the
overall heaviest widespread rainfall given the strongest dynamics
interacting with the moist airmass.

The cold front will move southeast on Sunday, allowing the rain to
shift off to the southeast. Much colder air will arrive by Sunday.

Temperatures will range from the mid 60s northwest to the lower 80s
southeast on Saturday. A significant cool down can be expected by
Sunday with not much recovery from morning lows. Highs will range
from the mid 40s northwest to near 60 far southeast.

A significant pattern change will develop through the later portions
of the long term period as a deep upper level trough settles in
across the Great Lakes region. This will lead to unseasonably cool
temperatures and some lower end chances for showers (maybe even some
snow mixed in) Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Periods of rain with MVFR/IFR CIGs and MVFR VIS are the main themes
this TAF period as a cold front slowly drops south of the area. The
amount of thunder continues to be of low confidence so kept all
mentions for thunder within the PROB30 category. Even with breaks in
the rain, CIGs and VIS restrictions remain likely through the rest
of the TAF.

Wind directions are a bit different across the area this afternoon as
the front slowly drifts south. Eventually, winds behind the front
become more northeasterly for Friday.


OUTLOOK...Periods of showers and thunderstorms will occur into
Sunday morning. This will result in MVFR/IFR conditions from time to
time.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...McGinnis