350
FXUS61 KILN 070207
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
907 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide mostly clear skies and dry weather
for tonight into early Friday. Low pressure will track from the
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night,
offering our next chance of precipitation. High pressure will
return from this weekend into early next week bringing a warming
trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winds have notably calmed down this evening, with high pressure
now moving into the Tennessee Valley, and a nocturnal inversion
beginning to set in. Some light westerly to southwesterly flow
will remain in place overnight, with the high centered to the
south. Dry conditions are also expected through the overnight
hours, with clear skies at the moment, but some high and mid
clouds moving in from the west by morning.

There is one minor possible exception to the above. The next
weather system remains well to the west, but some theta-e
advection aloft will already be occurring by 12Z across Indiana
and far western / southwestern Ohio. This will likely result in
a band of enhanced mid-level clouds, possibly precipitating,
which could be a mix of light rain and snow depending on exact
temperatures. Not all models suggest that this activity will be
robust enough to even reach the ground, as it will be falling
out of some higher cloud bases, with drier air underneath. So,
while this has been added to the forecast, will keep PoPs very
limited (just 20 percent) in the southwestern ILN CWA for a few
hours around 12Z.

Previous discussion >
High pressure moving through the southeast states will build
across the Ohio Valley tonight. This will result in mostly clear
skies and decreasing winds through the period. Low temperatures
will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A northern stream shortwave, quickly followed by a weakness in
the southern stream, will progress across the Ohio Valley Friday
into Friday night. The northern stream energy will bring
increasing clouds and a chance of rain, mostly north of
Interstate 70, Friday afternoon. Highs temperatures will be
limited to the lower to middle 40s across the north, while
reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s across the south.

The precipitation will then shift south Friday night as the
southern stream shortwave moves across the Ohio Valley into the
central Appalachians. Can`t rule out a dusting of snow across
our northern counties on the back side of the system as it
exits to the east early Saturday morning. Lows will range from
the mid 20s across the north to the mid 30s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft to start the period will become more zonal
during the early to middle part of the week. A closed low is
forecast to open up as it emerges from the southern Plains and
tracks across the southeast on Thursday. At the surface, high
pressure will predominate for the weekend into Monday. As the high
moves off, southerly flow will allow for a substantial warm up with
temperatures becoming 15 to 20 degrees above normal Tuesday and
Wednesday. Surface low associated with the upper system passing
south of the area may bring some rain by Thursday, but there is some
uncertainty on exact track and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet aviation conditions are expected tonight into tomorrow
morning. While there are still some gusty winds as of this
writing, wind gusts should diminish during the next few hours,
leaving generally light SW flow overnight (10 knots or less).
Some high clouds will begin to move into the area overnight.

There is a very small chance of some light rain or snow in the
09Z-12Z time frame at Cincinnati, but with no impacts expected
if it were to occur.

Tomorrow, mid level clouds will thicken, and eventually some
rain will move into the area -- affecting the Dayton and
Columbus TAF sites first before moving south to Wilmington and
Cincinnati. This rain may eventually bring some MVFR
visibilities, and some MVFR ceilings are possible near the end
of the TAF period, but confidence is too low to go with anything
other than VFR conditions for now. Winds will become lighter
near the end of the forecast, eventually becoming light and
variable Friday night.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Friday night into
Saturday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM.../Hatzos
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hatzos