587
FXUS61 KILN 280542
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1242 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Brisk, cold, and mainly dry conditions will continue through today,
with very cold temperatures continuing into tonight. A wintry mix of
precipitation is likely Saturday into early Sunday as a system moves
through the Ohio Valley, with the potential for some accumulating
snow. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue into next
week with another threat for winter precipitation on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With the maintenance of a well-mixed BL and sufficient moisture
within the cloud-bearing layer/DGZ, expansive cloud cover and
scattered flurries will continue through daybreak through the morning
before flurry activity tapers off from SW to NE by early afternoon.
There is a signal for some SHSN activity to develop within a lake-
effect corridor from NW OH through WC and central OH around sunrise,
continuing through the morning. Have included a chance SHSN in these
areas through this morning, with the potential for a trace or minor
accumulations in the heaviest/most persistent activity. Otherwise,
dry conditions will evolve area-wide into the afternoon with sfc
high pressure moving in and the LL wind flow subsiding and becoming
more westerly.

It is going to be another seasonably cold day, with highs again
topping out in the lower/mid 30s. Some sunshine is expected from EC
IN through the Tri-State into N KY by this afternoon, so some upper
30s cannot be ruled out in these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure will briefly drift into the region tonight before
pulling off to the E quickly. Although skies will be clearing this
evening, some mid/high clouds will overspread the OH Vly from the W
into the predawn hours. Still, favorable radiational cooling
conditions will allow for temps to dip into the upper teens/lower 20s
tonight before plateauing late with the arrival of some better cloud
cover toward daybreak and beyond.

After daybreak Saturday, attention will turn quickly to the approach
of a system from IL/IN into late morning/early afternoon. Guidance
has been trending a bit faster with the onset of pcpn, which may be
as early as mid morning in parts of EC IN/WC OH. Although there is
still some uncertainty regarding onset time and southward extent of
the steadier snow, the latest data favors an initial band of snow
pivoting into EC IN and WC OH by mid-morning owing to better
WAA/isentropic lift nudging into the area during this time. The
profile will saturate sufficiently to allow for SN to move into far
W/NW parts of the area into the morning, with the band expected to
drift to the NE into early/mid afternoon. Most of this initial
activity will be focused from EC IN into WC OH, with locales near/S
of I-71 likely remaining mostly dry into mid afternoon.

From an ensemble perspective, there has been a slight NW trend within
the solution envelope across several datasets, with lends itself to
questions regarding onset of mixed (RA/SN) pcpn near/SE oh I-71 into
the evening hours as the steadier pcpn overspreads the region from
the W. With this being said, the highest probabilities for at least
1"/2"/4" remain firmly NW of I-71 stretching from EC IN through WC
OH, with probs for at least 1" ranging from less than 50% SE of I-71
to over 90% from EC IN into WC OH. The probs for at least 2" by
Sunday morning are generally less than 25% near I-71 to over 75% from
EC IN through WC OH. So the Winter Storm Watch is well-placed at this
juncture as it relates to highlighting the area of greatest concern
for several inches of snow. There is still some uncertainty whether
warning-level criteria will be met in these areas, with only about
25% probability based on latest NBM output. But the watch is well-
placed to highlight the greatest potential for at least 2-4" of snow,
which seems reasonable given the latest data and the longer period of
SN expected for these areas from Sat AM into late Sat night.

One item to mention is that ground temps and untreated surfaces will
be very supportive for quick accumulation of SN at the onset as
morning temps will generally be 10-12 degrees below the freezing
mark, with afternoon temps topping out in the upper 20s in EC IN/WC
OH to the mid 30s near/S of the OH Rvr.

The biggest challenge in this fcst remains the degree of BL warming
during the daytime Saturday for locales near/S of I-71 and whether
the initial depth of dry air can be enough for the profile to wet
bulb and for near sfc temps to cool several degrees with the onset
of pcpn. This would likely keep the pcpn snow a bit longer before an
eventual transition to a RA/SN mix occurs toward midnight and beyond.
And a lot of this will be impacted by how /soon/ the SN starts for
the Tri-State into south-central OH as a later onset time into
mid/late afternoon or the evening would allow for better BL warming
and a shorter time for snow to accumulate. And this seems to be the
most likely evolution at this juncture.

Nevertheless, do think that steady snow will overspread the entire
CWA by early evening (and much earlier during the morning from EC IN
through WC OH) as the column saturates. Fairly robust WAA will evolve
later into the evening, aided by a strong 50+ knot LLJ. This will
help transition p-types to a RA/SN mix and then to rain during
Saturday overnight hours into Sunday progressively from S to N (which
may help melt/compact some of the newly-fallen snow). As the system
moves into the ern OH Vly and we get on the backside early Sunday
morning, a brief transition back to RA/SN or snow will follow Sunday
morning before pcpn tapers off from W to E area-wide by noon.

Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty of where that
RA/SN line will be, confidence in impactful accumulating snowfall is
highest in EC IN into WC OH. An advisory will likely eventually be
warranted for a larger part of the CWA than where the current watch
is in effect, but confidence was just not high enough to move forward
with WWA expansions/issuance at this time.

Stiff southerly winds will evolve late Saturday afternoon into the
night, with SE winds of 15-20kts and gusts to 25kts expected before
winds shift to more out of the W past 12z as the front moves
through.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley Sunday night
through Monday as a low pressure system pulls far off to the
northeast. Dry and cold conditions prevail.

The next potentially impactful round of winter weather arrives
Monday night and lasts through Tuesday. A shortwave upper level
trough approaches from the west late on Monday and moves through the
Ohio Valley on Tuesday. A surface low forms southeast of the
Appalachians in response to the upper level shortwave trough Monday
night/Tuesday morning. Snow is moderately likely to develop ahead of
the upper level wave Monday night into Tuesday morning in the Ohio
Valley. Some rain could end up mixing in southeast of I-71 on
Tuesday deepening on temperatures. However, forecast uncertainty
around the strength and position of the surface low greatly impacts
snow amounts. A stronger low closer to the Ohio Valley could
increase precipitation amounts (and impacts) as frontogenesis aloft
(around 850 hPa) ramps up. However, a low further south limits
forcing to the upper level wave without the aid of any lower level
mesoscale banding. Precipitation eventually ends Tuesday afternoon
behind the upper level trough.

High pressure then brings cold, try conditions Tuesday night through
Thursday. Precipitation chances increase late next week although the
synoptic pattern remains highly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period,
although some brief MVFR CIGs (along with some flurries and light
SHSN) may impact central OH sites of KCMH/KLCK for several hours
between 12z-16z.

Westerly winds will remain in place with gusts to around 20kts
this morning through this afternoon. The borderline MVFR/VFR CIGs
this morning will transition to VFR by this afternoon and scatter out
from SW to NE past 18z. A clearing trend will evolve for
KCVG/KLUK/KILN into the afternoon, with skies going mostly clear
area-wide by 00z. Some cirrus/mid clouds will overspread the area
toward the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBY with wintry precipitation likely
late Saturday into early Sunday. LIFR CIGs and VSBY will be possible
during this time. Snow may bring additional reductions to CIGs and
VSBY on Monday night into Tuesday as well.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     OHZ034-042.
KY...None.
IN...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     INZ050.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...