Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
781
FNUS72 KILM 211303
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Myrtle Head Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
903 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on August 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
Northeast winds are expected to continue over the next few days
in a gradient between high pressure to our north and Hurricane
Erin moving away from the area. A cold front will approach the
area on Friday and into this weekend bringing cooler
temperatures.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Low.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph in the late morning and
early afternoon becoming light.
Max mixing hgt......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 20 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (62074 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............73.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........54 63 70 66 62 58 57 55 54
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............77 79 82 83 85 86 86 87 86
RH..............87 82 78 73 70 66 65 64 65
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..5 5 6 5 5 5 5 3 3
20 FT wind gust.12 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.3 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.1
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.20 18 17 17 17 16 15 14 13
Stability.......B B C C C C B B B
LVORI...........4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............47 54 51 58 61 58 73 64 49
Vrate mph-ft/1K.37 43 46 57 62 60 61 53 40
Ventrate Cat....PR FR FR FR GD GD GD FR PR
Sfc pres (in)...971 971 975 975 975 974 974 974 973
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 12 mph shifting to the northeast 10
to 13 mph overnight.
Min vent rate.......Poor (3810 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Min ADI.............4.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........51 49 46 35 24 13 13 12 9 13 11 14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0
Temp............85 82 80 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 71
RH..............68 73 79 80 82 84 85 87 87 89 90 89
20 FT wind dir..N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT wind spd..2 1 0 1 2 3 3 2 2 1 2 2
20 FT wind gust.7 6 4 5 6 7 6 6 6 5 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE
Transp wind spd.12 10 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 13
Stability.......E E E E F F F F F F F F
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 5
ADI.............8 7 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6
Vrate mph-ft/1K.30 12 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...973 973 976 976 976 979 979 979 983 983 983 985
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Max mixing hgt......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 14 mph.
Max vent rate.......Poor (31348 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............38.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16 18 21 24 27 29 37 44 51 53 54 55
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............70 70 71 74 77 79 81 82 83 84 84 83
RH..............92 94 90 83 78 74 71 69 68 65 65 65
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E E
20 FT wind spd..2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1
20 FT wind gust.6 7 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E
Transp wind spd.13 13 14 13 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7
Stability.......A A A A A A A A B B B B
LVORI...........5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3
ADI.............12 12 20 28 28 33 38 38 35 36 36 37
Vrate mph-ft/1K.6 7 16 21 21 25 29 30 30 30 31 31
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...985 985 991 991 991 992 992 992 990 990 990 990
$$
Forecaster...Scalora
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2520367.0/ILM
.DELDT 08/21/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org