560
FNUS72 KILM 271130
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Shaken Creek Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
730 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on August 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

Note inversion does not lift to 1000ft until 10 AM.


.DISCUSSION...
Dry weather is expected over the next few days as high pressure
builds across the Carolinas. An area of low pressure to our south
and east could bring unsettled weather late Thursday into Friday.
Drier weather returns this weekend behind another cold front.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is None.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north around 5 mph early
                    in the afternoon, then becoming light late in
                    the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 12 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (67955 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............83.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............64  69  73  77  79  81  82  82  82  82
RH..............90  73  60  50  43  37  35  35  35  35
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..2   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   6   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.3 5.1 5.9 6.0 5.9 4.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.10  12  10  9   10  12  12  10  10  8
Stability.......A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A   A
LVORI...........4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............10  12  19  32  56  73  83  76  75  46
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5   10  15  25  44  59  68  62  61  37
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  PR
Sfc pres (in)...010 010 010 012 012 012 010 010 010 006

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 8 mph shifting to the northeast 7 to
                    8 mph overnight.
Min vent rate.......Poor (2417 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Min ADI.............3.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........3   5   8   13  19  24  19  15  19  35  42  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............79  77  74  71  69  68  67  66  65  65  64  64
RH..............38  45  54  62  66  68  72  74  78  80  83  86
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind gust.4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   NE  N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.8   7   7   7   7   7   6   7   8   8   7   7
Stability.......F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   5
ADI.............4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   3   3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.24  6   3   3   3   3   2   3   3   4   3   3
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...006 006 009 009 009 013 013 013 012 012 012 012

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Max mixing hgt......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 8 mph late in the morning.
Max vent rate.......Fair (43984 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............50.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52  58  61  69  70  70  71  71  72  73  75  76
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
Temp............64  64  66  71  76  79  81  82  82  82  82  82
RH..............90  94  89  77  67  59  55  52  51  51  51  53
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..1   1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.3 1.2 3.4 5.3 5.5 5.0 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.9
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   SE  E   SE  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   9   9   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
Stability.......A   A   A   A   A   B   B   B   B   B   B   B
LVORI...........5   6   5   4   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............7   7   7   14  41  49  50  47  43  41  40  38
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3   3   2   11  32  43  44  40  37  35  33  32
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...012 012 014 014 014 014 014 014 010 010 010 005

$$
Forecaster...Bacon
Requested by...Zach West
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2520807.0/ILM
.DELDT 08/27/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL zwest@tnc.org