006
FXUS62 KILM 032359
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
759 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonable warmth will persist through Sunday. The next
meaningful chance of rain will be late Sunday into Monday
accompanying a cold front. Much cooler and drier air will follow
on Tuesday into midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes to the public/marine forecasts w/ the latest
update. Aviation forecast updated for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unseasonable warm temperatures continue as a deep ridge persists
just off the Southeast coast. Tonight`s lows will again be closer to
typical high temps for this time of year in the upper 60s. Saturated
low levels will yield low stratus across majority of the area
overnight, potentially persisting into late morning/midday Friday.
There will be plenty of time once the clouds breakup, along with
strong WAA, to warm the area to 10-15F above normal. Forecasted
highs for Friday are in the upper 80s inland, with only a low chance
(5-10%) of reaching 90F. Sea breeze will again keep the coastal
areas "cooler". April 4th record highs that will be within 2-3
degrees are 87F at Wilmington (2007) and 90F at Lumberton
(1967).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unseasonably warm weekend ahead. Southerly flow around the
center of the ridge over the waters to our east will provide a
continuous flow of warm and moist air for several days. H5
heights should max out Fri into Sat over 590 dem with 850 temps
up around 16c. This should lead to aftn high temps in the mid
to upper 80s inland and closer to the mid to upper 70s closer to
the coast. May even see a 90 degree temp well inland. As aftn
sea breeze develops should see gusty and cooler ocean-modified
winds spread inland. Deep dry air aloft should help mix out any
morning stratus or fog but may also see some aftn cu along sea
breeze boundary. Confidence remains low for any sea fog
affecting the coastal areas. Probably best chance would be along
tip of Cape Fear. Rich dewpoint air will help keep overnight
lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep southerly flow around high pressure offshore will maintain
a moist airmass ahead of an approaching cold front Sun night
into Mon. As moisture increases through the column into Sun
night, instability is very limited. The system seems to have
slowed enough to keep increasing rain chances into Sun night,
but best chc of thunderstorms for Mon aftn. Sounding inland
shows precip water up to 1.7 inches, MU CAPE over 1400 with
dewpoints in the mid 60s and temps into the 80s inland. This
will be aligned with better upper level support as mid to upper
trough pushes cold front eastward.

The cold front will move off the coast Mon night with plenty of
drier and cooler air advecting in through Tues. Dewpoint temps
will drop into the 30s by Tues aftn. Daytime highs will only
reach into the 60s with plenty of April sunshine. Overnight lows
should drop into the mid 30s Tues night and we will have to
watch for frost potential midweek. Models show low pressure
approaching from the west Wed night into Thurs and this should
help moderate the cold temps Wed night and Thurs night with
increasing clouds. Pcp should hold off until late Thurs into
Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Increasing confidence that abundant low-level moisture will lead
to at least MVFR to IFR restrictions overnight through Friday
morning across SE NC and NE SC, possibly even into early Friday
afternoon, but low to moderate confidence on severity/timing.
VFR conditions should return by 18Z at all terminals, although
there is a low risk for MVFR/IFR restrictions lingering near the
coastal terminals (KCRE/KMYR) through the day if sea fog/stratus
develops.

Extended Outlook... Primarily VFR through the period. Early
morning vis/cig restrictions are possible each morning from
Thursday morning onward as abnormally high dew points move in. A
cold front approaching from the west will likely bring
additional restrictions from late Sunday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Deep high pressure off the Southeast coast will
maintain 10-15 kt south winds across the local coastal waters
through Friday. Seas will also remain near steady in the 3-4 ft
range, combination of SE swell (2-3 ft 8 sec) and S fresh swell (2-4
ft 6 sec). Low chance of sea fog near the coast Friday morning.

Saturday through Tuesday...
High pressure off shore will maintain a persistent S-SW flow
through the weekend and up until a cold front moves through on
Mon night. The winds will become gusty in decent sea breeze each
afternoon near shore but will increase across the area up to 15
to 20 kts with higher gusts Sat night into Sun as gradient
tightens as cold front approaches the Carolinas. Expect gusty SW
winds to veer to the W behind front heading into Tues morning.

Seas will remain in the 3 to 4 ft range over most waters through
Sat but will build heading into Sun in increasing southerly
push. Small Craft Advisory conditions will become more likely
beginning late Sun and should last into Mon night with seas up
to 4 to 7 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RGZ