262
FXUS62 KILM 092345
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
645 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will start to warm again ahead of a cold front that
is due Monday night. Light rainfall amounts are expected Sunday
night into Monday ahead of the frontal passage. More seasonable
weather arrives Tuesday night, continuing through next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Maritime stratocumulus are beginning to stream onshore across
southern Georgetown County. GFS and NAM forecast soundings over
MYR and GGE suggest this is a very thin layer of moisture at
least initially. Given only weak upglide noted on the 290-295K
isentropic surfaces at the top of the boundary layer these
clouds may encounter some resistance expanding inland tonight.
Inland winds are already diminishing and should remain 10 mph or
less away from the coast overnight. No significant changes were
needed to the forecast with this early evening update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure to the north will start to shift offshore with a
coastal trough developing near the Southeast U.S. coast tonight and
then pushing inland Sunday. Main challenge overnight will be
temperatures as we start to transition to increasing low-level
moisture due to isentropic ascent west of the trough. Could see some
very light showers/sprinkles develop overnight, especially near the
coast, although not expecting measurable rainfall so left rain
chances at less than 15%. Should see temps drop off fairly quickly
after sunset before and then level off and/or fall more slowly the
rest of the night as low-level moisture and clouds increase.  Lows
tonight should generally fall in the 50-55 degree range, although
slightly cooler inland and a bit warmer at the coast (especially
along the Georgetown Co coast where it likely won`t drop below the
lower 60s).

Rather cloudy skies and the weak wedge pattern will help limit
temperatures on Sunday, especially inland where it may not get out
of the 60s. Some light showers/sprinkles look possible just about
anywhere through the day with the best chances (albeit low) of
measurable rainfall likely holding off until late in the day well
inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Some welcome rain chances to start the period given our drought
status. Given the weak nature of the mid level forcing however QPF
prospects remain very low. Rain chances rise from Sunday night into
Monday as cold front draws nearer. The front is delayed until night
so Monday afternoon will grow warm again. The CAA Monday night will
be quite delayed so lows will still be a good 10 above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The CAA strengthens on Tuesday but model highs remaining above climo
probably indicate that we may see a non-diurnal temperature curve,
but this is difficult to forecast so far out. Seasonally normal if
not slightly cool weather sets in Tuesday night and Wednesday as
much higher pressures advect in from the north. Dry and seasonable
weather will remain in the latter part of the period as high
pressure is slow to progress eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions should persist over the coming 24 hours. Marine
stratocumulus clouds are already moving onshore in the clockwise
flow around high pressure well north of the Carolinas. While not
anticipated to cause any flight category concerns, scattered VFR
stratocumulus may expand up the coast and inland late tonight.
Daytime heating should cause an expansion of this
cumulus/stratocumulus Sunday afternoon, with deepening mid level
ceilings developing aloft ahead of the next weather system.

Extended Outlook...MVFR to local IFR ceilings may develop as
rain chances increase late Sunday night into Monday. A cold
frontal passage early Tuesday should clear moisture offshore
with VFR anticipated afterward.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...High pressure to the north will be shifting
offshore allowing a developing coastal trough tonight to push inland
on Sunday. The strongest pressure gradient is expected through the
evening with winds diminishing thereafter and shifting more
east/southeast into Sunday. Gusts should reach near 30 kt with seas
peaking 6-7 ft. Thus, we will continue the Small Craft Advisory for
all waters.

Sunday night through Thursday... Period initializes with prefrontal
southwesterly flow. A swing to the north will occur by Tuesday
behind the Monday night cold frontal passage. As the cool advection
strengthens Tuesday night seas should build to advisory levels while
winds may fall a bit short. The high will be slow to progress
eastward so northerly winds remain for the rest of the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...ILM